Parlay: Arizona Wildcats VS Iowa State Cyclones 2025-09-27

Iowa State vs. Arizona: The Great Kicker Kerfuffle and the Whiteout Witch Hunt

Parse the Odds: A Numbers Game of Inches
Iowa State (-4.5, -210 ML) is favored to continue its 4-0 start, but their odds are as shaky as a third-string kicker’s confidence. The Cyclones’ implied probability of winning outright is 63.6% (from -210 ML), while Arizona (+175) has a 36.4% implied chance. The total of 48.5 points suggests a low-scoring affair, with the Under priced at 53.9% implied probability (decimal odds of 1.86). Iowa State’s injuries—missing starting kicker Kyle Konrardy and All-Big 12 CB Jeremiah Cooper—add chaos to their defense, which ranks 10th in the conference. Arizona’s QB Noah Fifita, meanwhile, is a 712-yard, 6-TD, 0-INT magician, but he’ll face a Cyclones secondary missing its best cover man.

Digest the News: Injuries, Whiteouts, and Ancient Grudges
Iowa State’s “Whiteout” game is less about football and more about a fashion statement for fans who still think “casual” means “snowstorm chic.” The Cyclones’ kicker situation? A comedy of errors. Konrardy’s lower-body injury means backup Jace Gilbert (out) isn’t even the guy. Coach Matt Campbell calls it “not a long-term situation”—a phrase that should terrify anyone who’s seen a college kicker’s long-term trajectory. Arizona, meanwhile, is 3-0 but untested against Big 12 competition. Their last win over Kansas State was a 24-21 nailbiter, which is about the same level of suspense as a Netflix password reset.

Humorous Spin: The Absurdity of College Football
Let’s talk about Iowa State’s defense. Without Cooper, their secondary is like a vault with one lock and a sticky note saying “TOO EASY.” Arizona’s offense, meanwhile, is a “meh” sandwich: tasty enough, but not the kind of thing you’d Instagram. Iowa State’s kicker? A third-stringer who’s basically a field goal artist with a 50% success rate—think of it as Russian roulette with a 40-yard boot. And let’s not forget the historical context: Arizona’s 4-1-1 edge in this series dates back to 1968, which is older than most of these players’ smartphones.

Prediction: The Parlay Playbook
The best same-game parlay? Iowa State to cover the spread (-4.5) + Under 48.5 total. Here’s why:
1. Cover the Spread: Iowa State’s offense is 16th in FBS in scoring (31.5 PPG), and Arizona’s defense is merely average (54th in S&P+). The Cyclones don’t need to blow this out—they just need to win by 5 points, which feels achievable given Arizona’s shaky run defense and Iowa State’s home-field advantage.
2. Under the Total: With Konrardy out, Iowa State’s scoring could hinge on touchdowns instead of field goals. Arizona’s offense isn’t explosive enough to keep up in a low-scoring duel, and Iowa State’s defense, while leaky, should contain Fifita’s magic. The Under is priced at +170 on BetMGM, which is generous for a game where both teams have injury-riddled units.

Final Verdict: Bet the Cyclones to cover and the Under. Iowa State’s Whiteout crowd will freeze Arizona’s offense in place, and the total points will sputter like a car idling in a snowdrift. Unless Arizona’s QB starts throwing touchdowns out of a cannon (and why isn’t he?), this one stays under. Iowa State wins 24-17, and your parlay bankroll gets a little fatter.

“Football is like chess, but with more concussions and fewer checkmates.” — Your Humble Handicapper

Created: Sept. 27, 2025, 9:54 p.m. GMT