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Parlay: Arthur Rinderknech VS Cristian Garin 2025-07-02

Same Game Parlay: Arthur Rinderknech vs. Cristian Garin (Wimbledon 2025)
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Match Context: Resuming a match where Rinderknech leads 2-1 (6-3, 3-6, 7-6) after a dramatic comeback. Garin faces pressure to avoid a fifth set, while Rinderknech aims to capitalize on his momentum.

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Best Parlay: Rinderknech to Win + Over 44.5 Games
Odds:
- Arthur Rinderknech to Win (H2H): 1.25
- Over 44.5 Games: 2.1

Combined Implied Probability:
- Rinderknech: 1 / 1.25 = 80%
- Over 44.5: 1 / 2.1 ≈ 47.6%
- Total Implied Probability: 80% * 47.6% ≈ 38.1%
- Parlay Payout: 1 / 0.381 ≈ 2.62 (2.625 to 1)

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Why This Works
1. Rinderknech’s Momentum: After defeating world No. 3 Alexander Zverev in five sets, Rinderknech is riding a wave of confidence. His 7-6 tiebreaker in the third set shows his ability to close under pressure.
2. High-Scoring Potential: The match already reached 30 games (6-3, 3-6, 7-6). A fifth set is likely if Garin forces a decider, pushing the total games over 44.5.
3. Value in the Over: At 2.1 odds, the Over 44.5 is a low-risk leg. The previous sets (16, 12, 14 games) suggest a high-scoring finale.

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Alternative Parlay (Lower Risk, Lower Reward)
Rinderknech -2.5 Spread + Over 44.5 Games
- Odds: 2.1 (Spread) * 2.1 (Over) = 4.41 (4.41 to 1)
- Rationale: Rinderknech’s -2.5 spread reflects his dominance, but the Over 44.5 remains a safer leg.

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Key Stat:
- Rinderknech’s 7-6 third-set tiebreaker (16 games) already accounts for 16 of the 44.5 total. A fifth set would easily push the total over.

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Final Call: Go with Rinderknech to Win + Over 44.5 Games at BetMGM. The 2.625 payout balances Rinderknech’s strong form with the high-scoring potential of a five-set match.

“Arthur Rinderknech: #ToutDonner. Garin: Tout Perdre.” 🎾🔥

Created: July 3, 2025, 3:26 a.m. GMT