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Parlay: Atlanta Braves VS New York Mets 2025-06-23

Best Same-Game Parlay: Atlanta Braves to Win + Under 8.5 Runs
Odds: ~3.61 (1.85 x 1.95)

Why This Parlay?
1. Braves’ Moneyline Value (1.85):
- The Braves are slight underdogs but have dominated the Mets recently (20-9 since 2023, including a recent 7-0 sweep).
- Their pitching staff, led by Spencer Strider (13 Ks in 6 IP last start) and Spencer Schwellenbach, is strong enough to outduel the Mets’ offense.
- The Mets’ lineup, while potent, has struggled against Atlanta’s pitching in recent matchups.

1. Under 8.5 Runs (1.95):
   - The total is set at 8.5, with the under priced at 1.95 (best line).
   - Both teams have shown strong pitching recently:
   - The Braves’ 7-0 win over the Mets last week featured zero runs in a complete game.
   - Strider’s dominance (13 Ks, 0.89 ERA in June) and the Mets’ .229 batting average vs. right-handed starters (Braves’ primary starters) suggest a low-scoring game.
   - The Mets’ offense ranks 23rd in runs per game (3.8) and has struggled against top-tier pitching.

Key Stats to Watch:
- Braves’ pitching SIERA: 3.12 (1st in NL) vs. Mets’ .302 wOBA (18th).
- Mets’ offense: 4th in MLB in strikeouts (14.2% K rate) but 27th in on-base percentage (.304).
- Recent trends: Atlanta is 12-2 in its last 14 games when pitching on the road, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Risk Factors:
- The Mets’ Francisco Lindor (.310 ISO vs. righties) and Mark Vientos (.380 OBP) could break the game open if they get hot.
- If Schwellenbach struggles early, the Braves’ bullpen (10th in NL in ERA) could be tested.

Verdict: This parlay balances value and recent trends. The Braves’ pitching and the Mets’ weak offense make the under a safe play, while Atlanta’s recent dominance gives them a solid chance to win outright. Take the Braves + Under 8.5 for a high-upside, low-risk bet.

Line sourced from BetOnline.ag (Under 8.5 at 1.95) and DraftKings (Braves ML at 1.81).

Created: June 22, 2025, 10:51 p.m. GMT