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Parlay: Atlanta Braves VS St. Louis Cardinals 2025-07-13

The Cardinals vs. Braves Showdown: A Tale of Overdogs, Underdogs, and a Parlay That Feels Like a Heist
By The Sportswriter Who Once Bet on a Team Named After a Bird and Lived to Regret It

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Contextualizing the Chaos: The Cardinals, the Braves, and the Drama of July
Let’s set the scene: The St. Louis Cardinals, fresh off a 7-5 loss to the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of this three-game series, are now facing their rivals again on Sunday. The Braves, who’ve somehow managed to win 25% of their games as underdogs (a stat that makes you wonder if they’ve secretly hired a motivational speaker named “David the Underdog”), are looking to sweep. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the kind of team that thrives on favorites’ luck—winning 5-1 when the odds are -158 or shorter this season. But let’s not forget: This is baseball, where a single swing of the bat can turn a 61.6% favorite (per the -158 moneyline) into a footnote in a fan’s ex’s Instagram story.

The Braves, though, are the definition of “ugly but effective.” Their pitching staff ranks 14th in ERA, which is like being the “okay, but not great” cousin at a family reunion. Yet here they are, clinging to a 25% underdog win rate. How? By playing baseball like a Netflix thriller—full of twists, last-minute heroics (see: Matt Murphy’s three-run homer in Game 1), and the kind of drama that makes you question if the umpires are secretly in on the chaos.

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Key Data Points: Numbers That Make You Go “Huh…”
Let’s dig into the stats, because even the most chaotic games have patterns.

1. Sonny Gray, the Cardinal’s Ace (or Is He?)
   Sonny Gray is 9-3 with a 3.51 ERA this season. On paper, that’s solid. But let’s not forget: Gray’s career ERA against the Braves is 4.82. Why? Because Atlanta’s lineup—led by Matt Olson (17 HRs, 58 RBI) and Ronald Acuña Jr.—is like a buffet for pitchers who forget to bring an appetite. Olson, in particular, is a menace: He’s hit 6 HRs in his last 10 games against St. Louis. If Gray falters, Olson might as well be handed a golden ticket to the moon.

1. The Braves’ “Solid” Pitching Staff
   Atlanta’s ERA of 4.12 (14th in MLB) sounds respectable until you realize their bullpen has allowed 5.22 runs per game in high-leverage situations. That’s the baseball equivalent of a magician who forgets his rabbit. Raisel Iglesias, their closer, has 11 saves, but his 4.50 ERA in save situations makes you wonder if he’s more “closer” to a closer look at the scorebook.

1. The Cardinals’ Offense: 10th in Runs per Game, but…
   St. Louis scores 4.8 runs per game (10th in MLB), but their offense has gone cold in the last three games, averaging just 3.3 runs. Their key hitters—Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar—have combined for a .210 average against Atlanta this season. Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense, which scored 7 runs in Game 1, has the tools to keep up if Gray can’t contain them.

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Odds & Strategy: The Parlay That Feels Like a Heist
Let’s talk numbers. The Cardinals are -158 favorites, implying a 61.6% chance to win (158 / (158 + 100)). The Braves are +133 underdogs, which gives them a 43% implied probability (100 / (133 + 100)). But here’s the rub: The Braves have lost all four games when the odds are +133 or shorter this season. That’s a 0-4 record as underdogs in this range, which is statistically impossible unless they’re playing in a parallel universe where baseball rules are “just guess.”

Yet, MLB underdogs win about 45% of the time overall. The Braves’ 0-4 streak as +133 underdogs smells like a statistical anomaly—a fluke that’s begging to be broken. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ 5-1 record as -158 favorites is impressive, but it’s also a small sample size (6 games). History suggests favorites win about 60% of the time in MLB, so the Cardinals’ implied 61.6% is just slightly inflated.

The EV (Expected Value) Angle:
If we assume the Cardinals’ true win probability is 60% (close to their implied 61.6%), and the over/under is set at 8.5 runs (with the over priced at -111, implying a 52.6% chance), we can build a same-game parlay. The EV formula is:
EV = (Probability of Winning Parlay × Payout) - (Probability of Losing Parlay × Stake).

But let’s simplify it with a metaphor: Imagine you’re betting on a heist movie. The Cardinals winning is the “get the job done” plot, and the over is the “explosions and chaos” subplot. If the heist succeeds and the chaos is epic, you win big. If either fails? You’re watching a documentary about prison.

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The Best Same-Game Parlay: St. Louis Cardinals to Win + Over 8.5 Runs
Why This Works:
1. Cardinals’ Offense vs. Braves’ Pitching: St. Louis ranks 10th in runs per game, and Atlanta’s ERA is 14th. This is a classic “hot offense vs. leaky defense” matchup. The Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan (.290 AVG) and Lars Nootbaar (.275) have the tools to capitalize on any Braves pitcher who forgets how to throw a strike.
2. Braves’ Offense as a Wild Card: Atlanta’s lineup, while not elite, can score in bunches. If Sonny Gray falters (and his 4.82 ERA vs. the Braves suggests he might), Olson and Acuña could turn this into a slugfest.
3. The Over 8.5 Runs Line: The previous game in this series had 12 combined runs. With both teams’ offensive strengths and pitching weaknesses, 8.5 feels like a conservative line.

Odds Breakdown:
- Cardinals to Win: -158 (61.6% implied)
- Over 8.5 Runs: -111 (52.6% implied)
Combined implied probability: ~32.4% (1 / ((1/0.616) + (1/0.526) - 1)) = ~32.4%.
If the true probability is higher (say, 35%), this parlay has positive EV.

Where to Bet:
- FanDuel offers the best combined line: Cardinals (-158) + Over 8.5 (-111) = +230 (if combined).
- DraftKings has the Over at -111 and Cardinals at -158, same as above.

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The Final Verdict: Bet Like You’re Throwing a Party, Not Calculating Risk
This parlay isn’t for the faint of heart. It’s for the gambler who once bet their cat on a dice roll and still wonders if they made the right call. The Cardinals are the safer pick, but the over adds the spice of chaos. If you’re feeling lucky, go for it. If not, stick to the Cardinals to win outright at -158—it’s the sports betting equivalent of ordering a cheeseburger with no surprises.

Final Pick:
St. Louis Cardinals to Win + Over 8.5 Runs
Odds: +230 (combined at FanDuel/DraftKings)
Why? Because baseball is a game of runs, and this matchup smells like a fireworks show.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice. It’s the ramblings of someone who once bet on a team named after a bird and still hasn’t recovered. Do your own research, and always bet with money you’re willing to lose—or gain, if you’re lucky.

Created: July 13, 2025, 3:21 p.m. GMT