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Parlay: August Holmgren VS Quentin Halys 2025-07-01

Same Game Parlay Pick: Quentin Halys to Win & Under 39.5 Total Games
Bookmaker: Bovada
Combined Odds: +115 (2.15 decimal)

Why This Parlay?
1. Quentin Halys (-150) to Win
- Halys is a 46th-ranked ATP veteran with experience in five-set matches and Wimbledon conditions.
- August Holmgren, a debutant, is coming off a qualifying run but lacks the grass-court pedigree or stamina to challenge Halys.
- Implied probability: ~86% (based on Halys’ -150 price).

1. Under 39.5 Total Games (1.87 odds)
   - Halys’ sharp serve and Holmgren’s aggressive net play suggest a tight, low-scoring match.
   - If Halys wins in 4 sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-4, 6-3), the total games fall comfortably under 39.5.
   - Implied probability: ~53% (based on Under 39.5 at 1.87).

Key Context:
- Halys’ confidence in his serve and court familiarity gives him a clear edge.
- Holmgren’s qualifying run (3 wins) is impressive, but he’s untested against a top-50 player on grass.
- The Under is a safer play if the match is close, as both players rely on serve-and-volley tactics.

Calculated Value:
- Implied Probability of Parlay: 86% (Halys win) × 53% (Under) = 45.6%
- True Value: 1 / 2.15 ≈ 46.5%
- Slight edge for the parlay due to Halys’ dominance and the Under’s safety in a low-scoring match.

Final Verdict: This parlay balances Halys’ high probability win with a safer Under total, offering a +115 return for a 46.5% chance of hitting. A smart, low-risk play for Wimbledon Day 2.

Created: July 1, 2025, 11:38 a.m. GMT