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Parlay: Baltimore Orioles VS Atlanta Braves 2025-07-05

Same-Game Parlay: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Run Line + Under 10.0 Runs Total
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Odds: 4.55 (2.5 x 1.82)

Why This Works:
1. Braves -1.5 Run Line (2.5 odds):
- The Braves have a deeper lineup and a strong bullpen (Aaron Bummer, 2.86 ERA).
- The prediction favors a 5-2 Braves win, easily covering the 1.5-run spread.
- Implied probability: ~40% (1/2.5).

1. Under 10.0 Runs Total (1.82 odds):
   - The Braves’ pitching staff (3.76 ERA) and the Orioles’ recent Under trends (4/6 games) suggest a low-scoring game.
   - The prediction (5-2) totals 7 runs, comfortably under the 10.0 line.
   - Implied probability: ~54.9% (1/1.82).

Combined Value:
- Implied Probability: 21.9% (1/4.55).
- Actual Probability Estimate: ~22% (40% x 54.9%).
- Edge: Slight edge due to the Braves’ pitching and the Orioles’ recent Under performance.

Key Stats:
- Braves’ bullpen ERA: 3.76 (MLB top 10).
- Orioles’ offense: 4.85 runs/game (15th in MLB).
- Weather: 91°F, 8 mph winds—unlikely to boost fly balls.

Prediction: Braves 5, Orioles 2. Both legs hit.

Avoid Other Parlays:
- The Over 10.0 total is overpriced (1.82) given the prediction.
- Orioles +1.5 is a long shot (1.55 odds) with lower implied probability (~64.5%).

Final Verdict: This parlay balances value and probability, leveraging the Braves’ pitching and the game’s projected low-scoring nature.

Created: July 5, 2025, 12:02 p.m. GMT