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Parlay: Baltimore Orioles VS New York Yankees 2025-06-21

Best Same Game Parlay: Yankees Win + Over 9.5 Runs
Odds: ~+214 (1.61 x 1.95)

Why This Works:
1. Yankees Win (-171 ML): The Yankees are a high-powered offense (3rd in MLB at 5.1 R/G) and have thrived as favorites (61.5% win rate). Despite the Orioles’ recent 14-20 surge, the Yanks’ depth (Judge, Bellinger, Goldschmidt) and starter Clarke Schmidt (4.25 ERA but strong K rates) give them an edge.
2. Over 9.5 Runs (1.95): The Yankees’ offense and Baltimore’s porous pitching (23rd in runs allowed) create a recipe for a high-scoring game. Even if the Yanks win 5-3, the total would be 8.0, but a 6-4 or 7-3 result (common in this rivalry) pushes the Over.

Key Contrarian Angle:
While the Yankees’ pitching (Schmidt, 4.25 ERA) and defense are solid, their offense has a history of scoring in bunches against shaky Baltimore arms. The Orioles’ bullpen (15th in ERA) could unravel late, leading to a 10+ run total.

Avoid This Parlay If:
- You expect a pitcher’s duel (unlikely given the Yankees’ offense and Baltimore’s struggles).
- The Yankees win by 1 run (e.g., 5-4), which would still hit the Over (9.0 total) but miss the spread.

Final Verdict:
This parlay balances the Yankees’ dominance as a favorite with the inherent volatility of this matchup. The Over is a safer bet than the spread, and the Yankees’ win probability is high enough to justify the combo. Go with Yankees ML + Over 9.5 for a +214 payout.

“The Yankees’ offense is like a loaded gun pointed at the Orioles’ defense. Pull the trigger and hope for fireworks.”

Created: June 21, 2025, 10:58 a.m. GMT