Parlay: Baltimore Orioles VS Tampa Bay Rays 2025-06-16

Best Same-Game Parlay: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline + Under 8.5 Runs
Odds: ~+268 (3.68 implied probability)

Why This Works:
1. Tampa Bay Moneyline (-126, ~1.89 implied odds): The Rays are a slight favorite with a 3.46 ERA (7th in MLB) and a .393 team slugging percentage. Their pitching staff (Ryan Pepiot) and power-hitting lineup (Junior Caminero, 17 HRs) make them a strong favorite to win outright.
2. Under 8.5 Runs (-110 to -112, ~1.95 implied odds): The Rays’ top-10 pitching and the Orioles’ 26th-ranked offense (4.89 ERA) suggest a low-scoring game. Tampa’s 75 HRs (15th in MLB) are more about power than small-ball, and Eflin’s 4.89 ERA hints at a pitcher-friendly matchup.

Key Stats:
- Rays rank 7th in MLB in ERA (3.46).
- Orioles rank 26th in MLB in ERA (4.89).
- Rays’ slugging percentage (.393) vs. Orioles’ .345.
- Moneyline: Rays at -126 (~53.5% implied win probability).

Alternative (Lower Payout, Higher Risk):
- Baltimore -1.5 Runs + Over 8.5 Runs (~+250): While the Orioles have a 42.9% win rate as underdogs, their 4.89 ERA and Tampa’s 3.46 ERA make the Over less likely. This combo offers higher reward but is riskier.

Final Verdict: Stick with the Rays Moneyline + Under for a balanced, data-driven play. The Rays’ pitching and the Orioles’ offense align perfectly for a low-scoring Rays win.

Created: June 16, 2025, 3:10 p.m. GMT