Parlay: Baylor Bears VS SMU Mustangs 2025-09-06

SMU Mustangs vs. Baylor Bears: A Same-Game Parlay Breakdown
Where Football Meets Farce, and the Odds Are (Mostly) in Your Favor

1. Parse the Odds: The Math of Mayhem
Let’s start with the numbers, because even in a rivalry that dates back to 1916 (yes, SMU hasn’t beaten Baylor since the Reagan administration), we’re here to calculate, not cry.

Head-to-Head (H2H) Odds: SMU is the favorite at -121 to -142, depending on the book (implied probability: ~57-59%). Baylor is the underdog at +200 to +215 (~33-35%).
- Spreads: SMU is a 2.5-point favorite, with identical odds across the board (-110/-110). Baylor +2.5 is the play for those who like underdogs with a side of hope.
- Totals: The Over/Under is 65.0 to 65.5 points, with Over priced at -105 to -110 and Under at -105 to -110.

Translation: SMU is slightly favored to win, but the Over is the safer bet. Why? Because SMU’s offense is cooking (QB Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards and 3 TDs in his last game) and Baylor’s defense is… well, let’s just say they’re not the Bears of Defense, Inc.

2. Digest the News: Injuries, RPOs, and Rivalry Rivalry
- SMU’s Edge: QB Sawyer Robertson is the star, and his “toughness, leadership, and edge” (per coach Lashlee) translate to: He doesn’t miss open receivers, he doesn’t fumble, and he throws like a guy who’s seen the future and it’s a 40-yard touchdown.
- Baylor’s Threat: Their RPO game (read-option pass) is a “conflict generator” (Lashlee’s words), and their offensive line is “good” (his diplomatic term for “not terrible”). But their defense? They let Auburn’s QB rush for 137 yards last game—proof that Baylor’s D is like a sieve that’s been told “you’re doing great, keep going.”
- Injuries: SMU’s leading receiver (Jordan Hudson) and linebacker (Alex Kilgore) are day-to-day. Not season-ending, but also not exactly “fully healthy.” Think of them as “temporarily on crutches, not permanently in a museum.”

3. Humorous Spin: Football as a Circus (With Fewer Elephants)
Let’s lean into the absurdity:
- SMU’s defense allowed 351 yards in their opener. They’re like a castle that forgot to build a moat—anyone with a ball can waltz in.
- Baylor’s defense vs. the run? They’re the reason why Auburn’s QB is now the starting running back for the Bears’ fantasy league.
- As for SMU’s QB? Robertson isn’t just a player; he’s a one-man highlight reel. Last game, he threw for 419 yards. That’s 119 more than the average NFL QB’s monthly gym membership fee.

And let’s not forget the historical context: Baylor has won 13 straight in this rivalry. SMU’s last win? 1986. That’s older than half of you reading this. If SMU wants to end the streak, they’ll need to play like they’re in a time machine, not a football game.

4. Prediction: The Parlay Playbook
Best Same-Game Parlay: SMU -2.5 AND Over 65.5
- Why SMU -2.5? Robertson’s arm is a rocket, and Baylor’s defense is a sieve. SMU’s offense should handle the Bears’ D like a toddler handles a plate of spaghetti—with wild, chaotic efficiency. The spread is tight, but SMU’s edge in firepower makes this a solid leg.
- Why Over 65.5? SMU’s offense (419 yards last game) + Baylor’s defense (letting in 307+ yards recently) = a combined total that’ll blow past 65.5. It’s like pairing a flamethrower with a windbreaker—expect combustion.

Implied Probability Check:
- SMU -2.5: ~50% (based on -110 odds).
- Over 65.5: ~51-52% (depending on the book).
Combined, this parlay has ~25-26% implied probability. At +236 to +260 (depending on the book), it’s a value-packed play.

Final Verdict:
SMU wins this one, likely by a field goal or two, and the game explodes past the Over. The parlay? A SMU -2.5 and Over 65.5 combo. It’s not just a bet—it’s a rivalry-redeeming, QB-celebrity-making, total-yardage-torching masterstroke.

Go forth and parlay, oh wise bettor. And if SMU loses? Blame the time machine for being stuck in 1986. 🏈🔥

Created: Sept. 3, 2025, 1:46 a.m. GMT