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Parlay: Boston Red Sox VS Los Angeles Angels 2025-06-24

Same-Game Parlay: Los Angeles Angels to Win + Neto’s Total Bases Over
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Odds: Angels Moneyline (+256) + Neto Total Bases Over (Assumed -110, based on model’s recommendation)

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Why This Parlay?
1. Angels to Win (+256):
- Jack Kochanowicz (5.38 ERA, 1.61 K/BB ratio) has shown better control than Buehler (5.95 ERA, 53 Ks in 59 2/3 IP).
- The model favors the Angels’ consistency and home-field advantage at Angel Stadium.
- The Red Sox’s 5-5 Buehler was roughed up in his last start, raising concerns about his effectiveness.

1. Neto’s Total Bases Over (Prop):
   - Neto has a strong track record against Buehler, per the model’s analysis.
   - Buehler’s high ERA and struggles against contact hitters (like Neto) make this prop enticing.
   - Angels’ 3rd in MLB in home runs (113) and Neto’s power/speed profile (13 HRs, 18 SBs) support a high-output game.

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Key Stats to Watch:
- Buehler’s Struggles: 5.95 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 10 HRs allowed in 6 starts.
- Neto vs. Buehler: 10-for-23 (.435 BA) with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs in career matchups.
- Angels’ Home Edge: 28-22 at home this season, including 14-8 in underdog roles.

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Parlay Odds & Profit Potential:
- Combined Implied Odds: ~+289 (Angels +256 * Neto -110).
- Risk: $100 to win $289 if both legs hit.

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Why Not Other Combos?
- Angels Moneyline + Team Total Runs Over? The model doesn’t highlight this, and the Angels’ 4.60 ERA is a red flag.
- Red Sox Moneyline? -154 is a steep price for a team with a 5-5 starter and a .418 slugging percentage (7th in MLB) but inconsistent pitching.

Final Verdict: This parlay leverages the Angels’ home advantage, Buehler’s recent struggles, and Neto’s history against him. Stick with the model’s pick and the prop for a high-reward, low-correlation combo.

“Buehler’s got a leaky boat, and Neto’s the storm. Ride the Angels’ underdog wave to a parlay payout that’ll make your 2025 summer glow.” 🌟⚾

Created: June 23, 2025, 6:38 p.m. GMT