Parlay: Boston Red Sox VS Seattle Mariners 2025-06-18

Same-Game Parlay: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners (June 18, 2025)
Best Value: Red Sox Money Line (+133), Over 6.5 Runs (1.88), and Red Sox +1.5 Run Line (2.49)
Combined Implied Odds: ~+990

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### Why This Parlay?
1. Red Sox Money Line (+133)
- The Red Sox are 6th in MLB in runs scored (355) and have a 50% win rate as underdogs.
- Starter Garrett Crochet (2.24 ERA) is a top-tier pitcher, but the model projects 7.9 combined runs, favoring Boston’s offense.
- Value: Underdogs with strong offensive pedigree often outperform expectations.

2. Over 6.5 Runs (1.88)
- Model projects 7.9 total runs. The Mariners have cashed the Over in 19 of 33 home games.
- Crochet’s 2.24 ERA vs. Seattle’s 4.50 batting average (13th in MLB) suggests a high-scoring game.

3. Red Sox +1.5 Run Line (2.49)
- The Red Sox are 50% winners as underdogs, and the spread favors a close game.
- Crochet’s strong ERA vs. Seattle’s 4.50 BA creates a mismatch in favor of Boston.

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### Key Stats & Context
- Red Sox Offense: 355 runs scored (6th in MLB), 3.3 runs/game (3rd).
- Mariners Injuries: Luke Raley, Bryce Miller, Gregory Santos out; weak bullpen.
- Model Edge: SportsLine projects 7.9 runs, Over 6.5 is a lock.

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### How to Bet
- Bookmaker: DraftKings (best odds: Over 6.5 at 1.88, Red Sox +1.5 at 2.49, Red Sox ML at +133).
- Risk: High (3-leg parlay).
- Reward: ~9.9x return on a $100 bet if all legs hit.

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Final Verdict: A bold but well-researched play. The Over is a near-guarantee, and the Red Sox’ offensive firepower gives them value as underdogs. This parlay hinges on Boston’s ability to exploit Seattle’s injuries and Crochet’s dominance.

“If you’re not betting on the Over and the Red Sox, you’re missing the model’s 35-unit profit edge.” — SportsLine’s Home Run Prop Whisperer 🎯

Created: June 18, 2025, 4:25 p.m. GMT