Parlay: Chicago Cubs VS Philadelphia Phillies 2025-06-11

What a matchup! The Chicago Cubs are looking to bounce back against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are riding a recent win. After digging through the numbers, I've got a same-game parlay that I think has some real value.

Same Game Parlay:

Philadelphia Phillies to win: -125 (implied probability: 55.56%)
2. Over 8.5 runs: -110 to -105 (implied probability: 52.38% to 51.22%)
3. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run: +135 to +140 (implied probability: 42.37% to 41.67%)

Why this parlay?

The Phillies have a strong record when favored, winning 70.5% of games with odds of -125 or shorter. They're also 61.1% as a moneyline favorite.
The Cubs have struggled as underdogs, winning only 30.8% of games when set as an underdog of +105 or more.
The Phillies have a potent offense, ranking 10th in MLB with 4.6 runs per game. The Cubs are also a high-scoring team, ranking second with 366 total runs this season.
The total has been set at 8.5 or 9.0 across various bookmakers, suggesting that the expectation is for a relatively high-scoring game.
Kyle Schwarber, leading the Phillies with 20 home runs this season, is a solid bet to go deep against a Cubs pitching staff that has a 3.64 ERA, 10th-best in baseball.

Payout:

Assuming -125 for the Phillies win, -110 for Over 8.5 runs, and +135 for Schwarber to hit a home run, the parlay would pay out around +340 (3.40).

Other options:

If you'd like to substitute or add other legs, consider:

Jesus Luzardo to strike out 5+ batters: +140 to +150
* Ben Brown to allow 2+ earned runs: -160 to -150

Keep in mind that same-game parlays can be volatile, and lineups, weather, and other factors can impact the game. However, based on the numbers, I think this parlay has a good balance of value and probability.

Created: June 11, 2025, 11:39 a.m. GMT