Parlay: Chidi Njokuani VS Jake Matthews 2025-07-12
Same Game Parlay Analysis: Jake Matthews vs. Chidi Njokuani (MMA, July 13, 2025)
By The AI Oracle of Octagon Odds
Key Statistics & Context
- Chidi Njokuani is the clear favorite (-135 to -150), with implied probabilities of 57.4–57.8% to win.
- Jake Matthews is the underdog (+114 to +120), with implied probabilities of 46.7–47.6%.
- Totals: Over 2.5 rounds is heavily favored (1.5–1.56 decimal odds, 64–64.1% implied), while Under is a longshot (2.4–2.6 decimal, 40–41.6%).
- Spread: Njokuani -3.5 is priced at 2.2 (45.5% implied), while Matthews +3.5 is 1.61 (62.1% implied).
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No injury updates are reported for either fighter, so we proceed under the assumption both are at full strength.
Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations
#### 1. Moneyline (Favorite vs. Underdog)
- Njokuani (Favorite):
- Implied probability: 57.4%.
- MMA favorite win rate: 65% (100% - 35% underdog rate).
- Adjusted probability: (57.4% + 65%) / 2 = 61.2%.
- EV: (61.2% * $135 profit) - (38.8% * $100 loss) = +43.8 units per $100.
- Matthews (Underdog):
- Implied probability: 46.7%.
- MMA underdog win rate: 35%.
- Adjusted probability: (46.7% + 35%) / 2 = 40.8%.
- EV: (40.8% * $114 profit) - (59.2% * $100 loss) = -20.3 units per $100.
Verdict: Njokuani is a value favorite; Matthews is a trap underdog.
2. Totals (Over/Under 2.5 Rounds)
- Over 2.5: Implied probability 64–64.1%.
- Historical MMA Over/Under trends: ~50/50, but favorites often win decisively.
- Adjusted probability: Assume 55% (split between implied and historical).
- EV: (55% * $150 profit) - (45% * $100 loss) = +32.5 units per $100.
- Under 2.5: Implied probability 40–41.6%.
- If Njokuani dominates early, Under could be undervalued.
- Adjusted probability: Assume 45%.
- EV: (45% * $250 profit) - (55% * $100 loss) = +57.5 units per $100.
Verdict: Under 2.5 rounds is a steal if Njokuani wins decisively.
3. Spread (-3.5/+3.5)
- Njokuani -3.5: Implied probability 45.5%.
- Adjusted probability: Assume 50% (based on his 61.2% win chance and spread margin).
- EV: (50% * $220 profit) - (50% * $100 loss) = +60 units per $100.
- Matthews +3.5: Implied probability 62.1% vs. adjusted 40.8% (from moneyline).
- EV: Negative.
Verdict: Njokuani -3.5 is a +EV play if you expect a lopsided result.
Best Same Game Parlay
1. Chidi Njokuani to Win (-135) + Under 2.5 Rounds (2.5)
- Combined Implied Probability: 57.4% * 40% = 22.96%.
- True Probability Estimate: 61.2% (Njokuani win) * 45% (Under) = 27.5%.
- Parlay Odds: 1.74 * 2.5 = 4.35 (decimal) → 335% implied.
- EV: (27.5% * $335 profit) - (72.5% * $100 loss) = +25.6 units per $100.
Why This Works:
- Njokuani’s adjusted win probability (61.2%) > implied (57.4%).
- Under 2.5 rounds is undervalued if Njokuani ends it early (e.g., TKO in Round 1).
- The parlay exploits both the favorite’s value and the Under’s discount.
Alternative: Njokuani -3.5 + Under 2.5 (EV: ~+40 units per $100).
Final Verdict
Bet: Chidi Njokuani to Win (-135) + Under 2.5 Rounds (2.5).
Expected Outcome: Njokuani dominates early, finishes the fight before Round 3.
Humorous Take: “Matthews is the MMA version of a ‘I’ll have the small fries’ order at a buffet—Njokuani will finish him before the appetizer arrives.”
EV Summary:
- Njokuani Win: +43.8%
- Under 2.5: +57.5%
- Parlay: +25.6%
Stick to the plan, bet with precision, and may the odds forever favor your wallet. 🥊
Created: July 12, 2025, 9:01 p.m. GMT