Create Parlays

Parlay: Cincinnati Bengals VS Pittsburgh Steelers 2025-11-16

Same-Game Parlay Breakdown: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 11)
“Football is like chess, but with more helmets and less dignity.”

---

1. Parse the Odds: A Tale of Two Teams
The Bengals (5-5) are 5.5-point underdogs, a spread that feels less like a number and more like a challenge to the laws of physics. Their moneyline odds hover around +290 (decimal) to +305, implying a 25-26% chance to win. For the Steelers (5-4), the -5.5 spread comes with -140 to -150 odds, translating to a 58-60% implied probability. The total line sits at 49.5 points, with nearly even money on Over/Under.

Key stats to note:
- The Bengals’ defense is the NFL’s worst, allowing 29.8 PPG. They’ve been shredded by teams with the offensive prowess of a wet paper towel.
- The Steelers’ offense, led by Kenny Pickett’s “I-didn’t-see-that-coming” arm, averages 25.3 PPG. Their defense? A leaky dam holding back a flood.
- The Bengals’ offense, sans Joe Burrow (on IR after a turf toe injury that feels like a slapstick prop), is propping up on crutches.

---

2. Digest the News: Burrow’s Absence and the Curse of the Underdog
The Bengals are a team in crisis. Joe Burrow’s absence isn’t just a void—it’s a black hole. Without him, the offense resembles a toddler with a Rubik’s Cube: enthusiastic, but entirely ineffective. Backup QB Bailey Zappe? He’s 0-4 as a starter this season, posting a dismal 62.3 QB rating. Meanwhile, the defense is so porous, even a gentle breeze could score a field goal.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are the NFL’s version of a broken record: they keep spinning, and sometimes it works. After a loss to the Chargers, they’re hungry to prove they’re not just “Pittsburgh in January” (i.e., a playoff also-ran). Their defense, while not elite, is competent enough to harass Zappe into a four-interception game.

Recent absurdity: The Bengals have been underdogs in seven of their last eight games. It’s like they’ve adopted a “lose 50-30” mentality.

---

3. Humorous Spin: Sieve vs. Sewage Pump
Let’s be real: The Bengals’ defense is a Colander of Despair. They’d let a hot dog with training wheels score a touchdown. The Steelers’ offense? A firehose of points, blasting through opponents like a toddler with a water gun on a sugar rush.

As for the total line (49.5), imagine this: The Bengals’ offense will likely score 14 points (if they’re lucky and the Steelers commit a safety). The Steelers? They’ll probably hit 30, then gift the Bengals a 7-0 run via a pick-6 and a fumble return. That’s 41 points—and we haven’t even mentioned the halftime show.

---

4. Prediction: Steelers to Cover and the Over to Explode
Same-Game Parlay Pick:
- Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
- Over 49.5 Points

Why?
- The Steelers are favored for a reason. Their defense will pressure Zappe into mistakes, and their offense will methodically pick apart a Bengals secondary that’s more “open mic night” than “shutdown unit.”
- The Over is a lock. The Bengals’ defense will allow 30+ points, and the Steelers’ offense will add another 24-30. Even if the Bengals muster a 7-10 point response, we’ll hit 37-40 points—well shy of 49.5? Nope. This game will be a track meet, with the Steelers winning 31-24 (55 total) or 34-23 (57 total).

Final Verdict: Bet the Steelers to cover (-5.5) and the Over. The Bengals are a sinking ship, and the Steelers are the life preserver with a built-in flamethrower.

“The only thing more porous than the Bengals’ defense is my ability to remember my keys.”

Created: Nov. 11, 2025, 4:11 p.m. GMT