Parlay: Cincinnati Reds VS Boston Red Sox 2025-06-30

Best Same-Game Parlay: Boston Red Sox Moneyline + Under 7.5 Runs
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Odds: 1.53 (Red Sox) x 2.0 (Under 7.5) = 3.06 (203/100)

Why This Works:
1. Boston Red Sox (1.53 ML):
- The Red Sox are a consistent favorite at home (10th in HRs, .416 SLG) and face Chase Burns (Cincinnati’s starter), who has struggled against elite lineups.
- Garrett Crochet (Red Sox starter) has a 3.20 ERA this season and limits hard contact, making him a reliable arm against the Reds’ .400 SLG.

Under 7.5 Runs (2.0):
- Both starters (Crochet and Burns) have sub-4.00 ERAs this season, and the Red Sox rank 8th in fewest runs allowed per game (4.1).
- The Reds hit only 91 HRs (14th in MLB) and strike out at a 22.1% rate, while Boston’s .416 SLG is inflated by power, not contact.

Key Stat:
- The Red Sox have gone Under in 18 of Crochet’s 28 starts (64.3%), and the Reds have Under in 14 of Burns’ 27 starts (51.9%).

Avoid Over/Under Parlays:
- The Over is priced poorly (1.83–2.1) despite Boston’s power, while the Under offers better value at 2.0.

Final Note: Stick with BetMGM for this parlay to avoid cross-bookmaker issues. The Red Sox’s home dominance and both starters’ control make this a smart, high-odds play.

Created: June 30, 2025, 6:30 a.m. GMT