Create Parlays

Parlay: Dallas Mavericks VS Philadelphia 76ers 2025-07-16

Same-Game Parlay Breakdown: Dallas Mavericks vs. Philadelphia 76ers (NBA Summer League)
July 16, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET | Cox Pavilion

---

Parse the Odds: Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly)
Let’s start with the cold, hard math. The Philadelphia 76ers are the heavy favorites here, with implied probabilities hovering around 73-75% to win outright (based on H2H odds of +1.34 to +1.38). The spread tells a similar story: Philly is -6.0 to -6.5, meaning they’re expected to outscore Dallas by nearly a touchdown’s worth of points. Totals are locked at 168.5, with Over/Under odds evenly priced at ~52.5% implied probability.

But here’s the twist: The Mavericks aren’t total pushovers. Their odds of +3.0 to +3.35 imply a 23-30% chance to pull off an upset, which isn’t insignificant in a Summer League game where rosters are fluid and starters often play only a quarter. The key? Dallas’ recent bounce-back win over the Pelicans, led by Tre Johnson’s 21-point eruption, suggests they’re not all doom and gloom.

---

Digest the News: Injuries, Rookies, and the Curse of VJ
Philadelphia’s struggles are… well, struggles is a generous term. The 76ers have lost two straight Summer League games, including a 15-point drubbing by the Mavs in their opener. Dylan Harper, their No. 2 overall pick, had a stellar debut (28/10), but the team’s defense looks like a sieve. And here’s the kicker: VJ Edgecombe, their presumed floor-general, is sidelined with a “mysterious hamstring injury” (read: tripped over his own water bottle during warmups, per insider sources). Without him, Philly’s offense is a car with one working wheel and a GPS set to “nowhere fast.”

Dallas, meanwhile, is riding a wave of rookie confidence. Tre Johnson, their second-year guard, has been a one-man wrecking crew, averaging 21 points per game. The Mavericks’ defense? It’s like a Swiss Army knife—sharp, versatile, and occasionally used to open beer cans in the locker room. Their Achilles’ heel? A lack of depth. If Johnson sits, they’re toast. But he’s healthy, and his energy is enough to power a small city.

---

Humorous Spin: “This Game is a Pickle”
Imagine the 76ers as a gourmet restaurant that forgot to order ingredients. Dylan Harper is the Michelin-starred chef, but VJ Edgecombe’s absence means the kitchen’s sous-chef is a intern who microwaves everything. The Mavericks? They’re the food truck next door—messy, loud, and serving “mystery meat” dunks that somehow hit the net.

The spread (-6.5) is Philly’s chance to prove they’re not just a “draft pick and pray” team. But let’s be real: If the 76ers win by 6.5, it’ll be because Dallas’ bench decided to moon the crowd and get ejected. As for the total, 168.5 points feels like the score of a NBA 2K exhibition between two teenagers who maxed out their dunks. Summer League games are chaos, and this one’s primed to blow the Over.

---

Prediction: The Parlay Playbook
Best Same-Game Parlay:
1. Philadelphia 76ers to Win (-6.5) – Implied probability: ~53% (DraftKings: +134).
2. Over 168.5 Total Points – Implied probability: ~52.5%.
3. Tre Johnson Over 19.5 Points – Implied probability: ~55% (assuming +190 odds).

Why This Works:
- The 76ers’ offense is too potent for Dallas’ porous defense. Harper and Co. will score, and Johnson’s hot hand ensures Dallas keeps the game loose enough for the Over.
- Edgecombe’s absence is a death sentence for Philly’s half-court sets, but Summer League is all about transition buckets and “accidental” dunks.
- If you’re feeling spicy, add Dylan Harper Over 25.5 Points to the parlay for a 4-leg monster. Just don’t blame me when he hits a game-winning three with 0.2 seconds left.

Final Verdict: Bet the 76ers to cover (-6.5) and the Over. If you’re a masochist, throw in Harper’s over/under. The Mavericks’ only chance is if Johnson sits, but even then, Philly’s bench is a bunch of guys who think “defense” is a type of sandwich.

“The 76ers are favored for a reason. That reason is ‘reasons.’ Dallas? They’re the reason why ‘upset’ is a thing. Pick your poison—and hope it’s not VJ Edgecombe’s.”

---
Line updated: July 16, 2025 | 3:45 PM ET
Odds via FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetRivers

Created: July 16, 2025, 11:46 a.m. GMT