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Parlay: Eduarda Moura VS Lauren Murphy 2025-07-12

Same-Game Parlay Analysis: Eduarda Moura vs. Lauren Murphy
The "Duel of Generations" pits 31-year-old Brazilian Eduarda Moura against 41-year-old veteran Lauren Murphy. Let’s dissect this with the precision of a Brazilian jiu-jitsu chokehold and the humor of a fighter’s pre-fight trash talk.

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1. Key Statistics & Context
- Eduarda Moura:
- Claims to be “strong at flyweight” and boasts grappling prowess, predicting Murphy will “crumble” under her jiu-jitsu.
- Fights for UFC ranking and career momentum.
- Lauren Murphy:
- Fighting what she calls her “final chapter” in MMA, with a 2021 title shot under her belt.
- Last fight was a loss to Jessica “Bate-Estaca” (a name that already sounds like a submission finish).
- Head-to-Head: None.
- Style Matchup: Moura’s grappling vs. Murphy’s experience. Moura’s confidence in her ground game is high, but Murphy’s veteran poise could counteract that.

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2. Injuries/Updates
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- Murphy’s motivation: Fighting for legacy; Moura fighting for UFC relevance.

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3. Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations
#### H2H Odds (Underdog Win Rate for MMA: 35%)
- Eduarda Moura (Favorite):
- Best odds: 1.15 (BetRivers/BetMGM).
- Implied probability: 1 / 1.15 ≈ 86.96%.
- Adjusted probability (favorite formula): (86.96% + (100% - 35%)) / 2 = (86.96% + 65%) / 2 = 75.98%.
- EV: 75.98% - 86.96% = -10.98% (Negative EV).

• Lauren Murphy (Underdog):
  - Best odds: 4.8 (BetOnline.ag/DraftKings).
  - Implied probability: 1 / 4.8 ≈ 20.83%.
  - Adjusted probability (underdog formula): (20.83% + 35%) / 2 = 27.92%.
  - EV: 27.92% - 20.83% = +7.09% (Positive EV).

Totals (Over/Under 2.5 Rounds)
- Over 2.5 Rounds:
- Best odds: 1.35 (BetOnline.ag).
- Implied probability: 1 / 1.35 ≈ 74.07%.
- Assumption: Given Moura’s talk of grappling finishes, actual probability of Under is higher than implied.
- Under 2.5 Rounds:
- Best odds: 3.25 (BetOnline.ag).
- Implied probability: 1 / 3.25 ≈ 30.77%.
- Assumption: Moura’s grappling confidence suggests a finish (Under) is more likely than the market prices.

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4. Best Same-Game Parlay
Recommendation: Lauren Murphy to Win (+4.8) + Under 2.5 Rounds (+3.25)
- Combined Implied Probability: 20.83% (Murphy) * 30.77% (Under) ≈ 6.41%.
- Adjusted Probability:
- Murphy’s EV is +7.09%.
- Under’s EV is speculative but plausible (Moura’s grappling talk vs. Murphy’s veteran resolve).
- Why This Works:
- Murphy’s +7.09% EV makes her a clear underdog play.
- Under 2.5 rounds hinges on Moura’s grappling not translating to a finish (a flaw in her bravado).

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5. Humorous Take
> “Eduarda Moura claims she’ll submit Lauren Murphy like a Brazilian jiu-jitsu textbook. But let’s be real: Murphy’s fought 11 more years than Moura. She’s not here to be submitted—she’s here to say goodbye with a middle finger to the clock. The Under 2.5 rounds? Moura’s ‘quick finish’ talk is just her way of telling Murphy, ‘I’ll take your time and waste it in the first round.’”

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Final Verdict
- Best Bet: Lauren Murphy (+4.8) + Under 2.5 Rounds (+3.25).
- EV Edge: Murphy’s +7.09% EV + speculative Under edge.
- Bankroll Allocation: 2-3% of your MMA bankroll for this parlay.

Place your bets, then send Moura a DM: “Hey, did you really think you’d submit a veteran like Murphy? That’s what she said before the ref called the fight.” 🥊

Created: July 12, 2025, 8:57 p.m. GMT