Parlay: Espérance Sportive de Tunis VS Flamengo 2025-06-16

Okay, let's tackle this query. The user wants the best same-game parlay for the Espérance vs Flamengo match in the FIFA Club World Cup. First, I need to parse all the data provided. The match is on June 17, 2025, at 1:00 AM UTC. The user included multiple bookmakers with different odds for various markets.

Same-game parlays usually combine multiple bets from the same game, like moneyline, over/under, and spreads. The key is to find combinations where the implied probabilities add up to less than 100% for a positive expected value. Let me look at the data.

First, the moneyline odds. Flamengo is the favorite with prices around 1.34 to 1.40, while Espérance is a big underdog at 8.75 to 9.0. The draw is around 4.5 to 4.9. The total goals line is 2.5, with over and under priced between 1.74 to 2.0. For spreads, Flamengo is -1.25 with prices around 1.87 to 1.95, and Espérance is +1.25 at 1.87 to 1.95.

To build a parlay, I need to pick two or more outcomes that are likely to occur. Let's consider combining Flamengo to win the match with the over 2.5 goals. The moneyline for Flamengo is around 1.36 (Bovada) to 1.4 (others). The over 2.5 is priced between 1.74 (BetMGM) to 2.0 (Bovada). Let's take the best prices. If I take Flamengo at 1.4 and over 2.5 at 1.83 (FanDuel), the combined odds would be 1.4 * 1.83 = 2.56. That's a 39.4% chance implied. If the actual probability is higher, it's a good bet.

Alternatively, maybe Flamengo to win the match and cover the -1.25 spread. The spread line is -1.25 for Flamengo at 1.87 to 1.95. If Flamengo wins by 2 or more, they cover. Combining that with the moneyline might be redundant, but if the user wants a parlay, maybe Flamengo to win and cover. But the spread and moneyline are related, so the combined odds might not be as favorable. Let me check the numbers. If Flamengo wins by 2, they cover the spread and win the match. The moneyline is 1.4, and the spread is 1.87. Multiplying them gives 1.4 * 1.87 = 2.62. That's a 38.2% implied probability. If the actual chance is higher, it's a good bet.

Another angle: Flamengo to win and the under 2.5 goals. But Flamengo is a high-scoring team, so under might not be the best. The under is priced at 1.74 to 1.93. Combining with Flamengo's win would be 1.4 * 1.93 = 2.70. But if Flamengo scores 1-0, they win and the under hits. However, Flamengo's style is more attacking, so maybe over is better.

Wait, the user wants the best same-game parlay. Let's see which combination has the highest potential return with reasonable probability. The Flamengo win + over 2.5 seems plausible. Let's check the implied probabilities. Flamengo's moneyline at 1.4 implies a 71.4% chance (1/1.4). The over 2.5 at 1.83 implies a 54.1% chance (1/1.83). If these are independent, the combined probability is 71.4% * 54.1% = 38.6%, which gives a combined odds of 1 / 0.386 ≈ 2.59. The actual combined odds from the bookmakers are 1.4 * 1.83 = 2.56, which is close. The expected value would be positive if the actual probability is higher than 38.6%.

Alternatively, maybe Flamengo to win and under 2.5. But Flamengo's under is 1.74 (BetMGM), so 1.4 * 1.74 =

Created: June 16, 2025, 1:33 p.m. GMT