Parlay: Everton VS Liverpool 2025-09-20

Liverpool vs. Everton: A Merseyside Thriller with a Side of Absurdity

The Merseyside derby is a clash steeped in history, rivalry, and enough local pride to make a Welshman blush. This Saturday, Liverpool and Everton meet again, and if you thought this game would be a tactical masterclass, prepare to be disappointed. It’s more likely a three-act drama where Liverpool’s defense plays the role of a forgetful actor who keeps forgetting the plot, and Everton’s attack is a stand-up comedian who’s only told one joke… and it’s not funny.

Parsing the Odds: A Math Class You Didn’t Sign Up For
Let’s start with the cold, hard numbers. Liverpool is a 1.45-1.48 favorite (decimal odds), translating to a 68-70% implied probability of winning. Everton, at 6.70-7.25, is a 13-14% underdog, and the draw sits at 4.6-4.75 (20-21%). These numbers scream “Liverpool should win,” but they also whisper, “Don’t be surprised if this ends in a 1-1 thriller where both teams’ fans go home equally frustrated.”

Historically, Liverpool dominates Everton 126 wins to 84 losses, but Moyes has turned Everton into a gritty underdog. They’ve earned seven points from their last three games, including two wins and a “dry” draw (read: goalless and dull as watching paint dry). Jack Grealish, their loan star, is a magician with assists (four in four games) but a total flop when it comes to finishing. Everton’s attack is like a smartphone with no camera—you set it up perfectly, but when it matters, it just… doesn’t click.

Liverpool, meanwhile, is a team that lives on the edge of a knife. Under Arne Slot, they’ve won four straight, but five consecutive late winners? That’s not consistency; that’s a sports movie where the hero only scores when the clock is about to expire. Slot’s plea for “more consistency” is less a critique and more a prayer to the Football Gods.

Same-Game Parlay Pick: Liverpool to Win + Over 2.5 Goals
Here’s the best same-game parlay: Liverpool to win (1.45) + Over 2.5 goals (1.57-1.60). Why? Let’s break it down:
- Liverpool’s Late Drama: Five straight late winners mean they’re likely to score. Their defense? Not so much. They’ve kept clean sheets, sure, but only until the 83rd minute. Everton’s attack may struggle, but with Liverpool’s backline playing like a sieve in stoppage time, expect a late goal (or two).
- Everton’s Futility: Grealish’s assists are a gift, but his finishing? A gift to the opposing goalkeeper. Everton’s “goalless draw” last week proves they can’t finish, but they’ll likely score here to salvage pride.

Combined, this parlay offers odds of ~2.27 (1.45 x 1.57), translating to a ~44% implied probability. It’s a high-risk, high-reward play—like ordering a “healthy” salad and then stealing your neighbor’s fries.

Humorously Yours
Everton’s attack is so unreliable, their striker’s contract probably includes a clause about not getting injured from disappointment. Grealish, meanwhile, is a one-man highlight reel… for assists. If he keeps this up, he’ll be named EPL Player of the Month for… passing.

Liverpool’s defense? They’re like a bouncer who only notices trouble when the party’s over. “Oh, you’re scoring now? At this hour? I was just about to close up!”

Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Everton
Liverpool’s late goals will strike again, and Everton will finally finish a chance—probably in the 89th minute to make everyone lose their minds. Bet on the Over 2.5 goals because why not? It’s the only way this game makes sense.

Final Verdict: Take Liverpool to win and the Over 2.5 goals. If you’re feeling spicy, add a spread leg (-1.25) for extra flavor. But if you’re a sane person, just enjoy the chaos and hope neither team scores in the 94th minute.

Note: This analysis is not financial advice. It’s a humorous take written by someone who still thinks “Toffees” is a type of candy.

Created: Sept. 20, 2025, 5:43 a.m. GMT