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Parlay: Hamad Medjedovic VS Sebastian Ofner 2025-07-01

Same Game Parlay: Hamad Medjedovic vs. Sebastian Ofner (ATP Wimbledon)
Bookmaker: Bovada
Total Implied Probability: ~26.88%
Combined Odds: +257.17 (3.57 decimal)

Leg 1: Hamad Medjedovic -3.0 Games Spread
- Odds: +187 (1.87 decimal)
- Implied Probability: 51.35%
- Why: Medjedovic is a strong favorite (-150 moneyline), and covering a -3.0 game spread is feasible if he wins in straight sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 = 24 games total). His recent form and lower-ranked opponent (Ofner, 108th ATP) support this.

Leg 2: Under 41.5 Total Games
- Odds: +91 (1.91 decimal)
- Implied Probability: 52.36%
- Why: Medjedovic’s dominance and Ofner’s lack of depth on grass make a low-scoring match likely. A 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 result (24 games) or even a 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 (19 games) would comfortably hit the under.

Combined Analysis
- Total Implied Probability: 51.35% * 52.36% ≈ 26.88%
- Bookmaker Edge: Bovada’s combined odds (3.57) imply a 28.0% chance, giving a 1.12% edge (26.88% vs. 28.0%).
- Risk/Reward: A $100 bet yields $257.17 profit if both legs win.

Why This Parlay?
1. Medjedovic’s Dominance: He’s 10-1 on grass this season and has beaten players ranked inside the top 100.
2. Ofner’s Weakness: Ofner has lost 11 of his last 12 matches and struggles on grass.
3. Under 41.5 Games: Medjedovic’s aggressive playstyle and Ofner’s defensive issues make a low-scoring match likely.

Final Verdict: This parlay balances Medjedovic’s strong favoritism with a conservative under total, offering a smart, low-risk play for Wimbledon Day 2.

Bet: Medjedovic -3.0 Games Spread + Under 41.5 Total Games
Bookmaker: Bovada
Odds: +257.17 (3.57)
Expected Value: +1.12% edge (slightly positive).

Note: Always confirm odds and lines before placing bets, as they may change.

Created: July 1, 2025, 11:37 a.m. GMT