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Parlay: Houston Astros VS Colorado Rockies 2025-07-03

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Same-Game Parlay Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline + Astros -1.5 Run Line + Under 11 Runs
Bookmaker: Caesars (William Hill US)
Odds: 1.53 (Astros ML) Ă— 1.83 (Astros -1.5) Ă— 2.0 (Under 11) = 5.58 (458% ROI)


Why This Parlay Works
1. Astros Moneyline (-286, 74% Implied)
- The Astros are a 61.7% favorite when favored, outperforming their implied probability.
- Rockies’ 5.51 ERA and 1.550 WHIP (worst in MLB) make them a soft target.

  1. Astros -1.5 Run Line (1.83, 55% Implied)
    - Houston’s 3.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP (2nd in MLB) vs. Colorado’s 5.51 ERA = strong edge.
    - Rockies score just 3.1 RPG, limiting Houston’s margin for error.

  1. Under 11 Runs (2.0, 50% Implied)
    - Low-scoring matchup: Rockies’ 3.1 RPG + Astros’ 4.2 RPG = 7.3 RPG average.
    - Rockies’ pitching (5.51 ERA) vs. Astros’ offense (4.2 RPG) = 11-run total feels inflated.


Key Stats
- Astros: 61.7% win rate as favorites, 3.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP.
- Rockies: 5.51 ERA, 1.550 WHIP, 3.1 RPG (MLB’s worst).
- Implied Probability: 17.9% (1/5.58).


Risk Factors
- Coors Field: Rockies’ home park inflates offense, but their pitching is too weak to offset.
- Brandon Walter vs. Kyle Freeland: Walter’s 3.80 ERA vs. Freeland’s 5.12 ERA = edge to Astros.


Verdict
This parlay leverages the Astros’ dominance in pitching, the Rockies’ historic ineptitude, and a conservative total. The combined implied probability (17.9%) is well below the expected true probability (~25-30%), creating a ~4x value edge.

Place the parlay at Caesars (William Hill US) for the best odds.

“The Rockies are the NFL’s Miami Dolphins of baseball: a team that’s fun to root for but impossible to root with.” 🎯

Created: July 3, 2025, 7:16 a.m. GMT