Parlay: Iga Swiatek VS Belinda Bencic 2025-07-10

Same Game Parlay: Iga Swiatek vs. Belinda Bencic (Wimbledon 2025 Semifinal)
Best Bet: Swiatek Moneyline (-777) + Under 21.5 Games (-113)
Bookmaker: MyBookie.ag (Swiatek @ 1.3, Under @ 1.74)
Combined Odds: 2.26 (223/100)

Why This Parlay?
1. Swiatek’s Dominance:
- The Pole has won 9 of her last 10 matches at Wimbledon, including a 6-2, 7-5 quarterfinal. She’s a -777 favorite on MyBookie.ag, implying a 60.5% chance to win.
- Bencic’s only win in their 4-meetings was a 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinal, but Swiatek has since improved her grass-court fitness and form.

Under 21.5 Games (-113):
- The Under is priced at 1.74 (57.47% implied probability) on MyBookie.ag.
- Swiatek’s recent matches have been low-scoring (e.g., 6-2, 7-5 vs. Samsonova). Bencic’s quarterfinal vs. Andreeva was a 24-game thriller, but Swiatek’s consistency and Bencic’s fatigue could lead to a straight-sets result.

Mathematical Edge:
- Swiatek’s Implied Probability: 100/(777 + 100) = 11.3% (but her actual win probability is likely ~60-70%).
- Under 21.5 Implied Probability: 57.47% (bookies expect a tight match, but Swiatek’s dominance makes the Under more likely).
- Combined Implied Probability: 11.3% * 57.47% = 6.5% (vs. 43.6% actual probability).

Why Not Other Combinations?
- Spreads (-4.5): Swiatek -4.5 at 1.85 (54.05% implied) is riskier. She’d need to win a set by 5 games, which is unlikely given Bencic’s tiebreak prowess.
- Over 21.5 Games: Priced at 1.91 (52.35% implied), but Swiatek’s straight-sets form makes the Over less likely.

Final Verdict
Swiatek’s combination of moneyline and Under 21.5 games offers the best balance of value and probability. The Under is a safer leg if the match stays in straight sets, and Swiatek’s form makes her a near-lock to win. This parlay could yield 226% profit on a $100 bet if both legs hit.

Play it on MyBookie.ag for the best odds. 🎾✨

Created: July 9, 2025, 11:47 p.m. GMT