Parlay: Indianapolis Colts VS Baltimore Ravens 2025-08-07

Colts vs. Ravens Preseason Showdown: A Same-Game Parlay for the Ages

Parse the Odds: A Mathematically Delicious Mess
Let’s start with the numbers, because even in the NFL preseason, we’re here for the math. The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 5.5 to 6 points across most books, with decimal odds hovering around 1.36-1.38 for a win. That translates to an implied probability of ~56%—not bad for a team using this game to test-drive their quarterback carousel. The Baltimore Ravens, meanwhile, are priced at 3.15-3.25, implying a 23-25% chance to win. But here’s the kicker: the Ravens aren’t even playing their starters. John Harbaugh’s “placeholder squad” has gone 0-3 against the spread in preseason games this year, and their implied probability is about as reliable as a third-string punter on a windy day.

The total is set at 36.5 points, with the Over and Under hovering around 1.91-1.95. Given that the Colts’ defense is missing key players like Charvarius Ward and JuJu Brents (injured, not on vacation), and the Ravens’ offense is a group of “Hey, you play football?” guys, this feels like a low-scoring affair. But don’t sleep on Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones—these QBs are hungry to prove they’re not just preseason punchlines.

Digest the News: QB Battle, Ravens’ Preseason Jinx
The Colts are using this game to settle their QB competition between Anthony Richardson (the 2023 No. 4 pick) and Daniel Jones (a veteran trying to outshine his former team). Richardson, fresh off a “reclaim your job” speech, is expected to start. Jones, meanwhile, is probably thinking, “I used to be the starter. Remember me?” Neither has a chance against the real Ravens, but against the preseason Ravens? It’s like a Michelin-star chef competing in a hot dog eating contest—audience members will eat it up.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are the NFL’s version of a haunted house: fun to visit, but nobody wants to live there. Harbaugh’s teams are notoriously overvalued in the preseason, and this one’s no different. Without starters like Lamar Jackson or Derrick Henry, Baltimore’s offense is a “meh” sandwich. Their defense? A “meh” smoothie. They’re the preseason’s answer to a ghost town—everyone’s there, but nobody’s alive.

Humorous Spin: Football as a Reality Show
Imagine the Colts’ defense as a reality TV show: “Survivor: Secondary Injuries.” Charvarius Ward got voted off the island first, then Jaylon Jones and JuJu Brents followed. The remaining cast is probably whispering, “Is this a challenge or a catastrophe?” Meanwhile, the Ravens’ starters are sipping Gatorade on a beach, watching their backups fumble through a script they never read.

As for the QB battle, Richardson and Jones are like two chefs in a cooking competition where the only ingredient is “hope.” Richardson’s a fiery upstart with a “I’ll-ruin-the-soup-but-it-might-taste-like-a-breakthrough” vibe. Jones is the calm veteran who forgot his recipe and is winging it with a ladle. The crowd? Cheering for whoever spills the least.

Prediction & Parlay: Bet Like You’re Streaming a Reality Show
Here’s your same-game parlay: Colts -6.0 (-110) AND Under 36.5 (-110). Why? Because the Colts’ starters will play enough to show off their skills, the Ravens’ backups won’t score enough to embarrass the spread, and the total points will be low due to porous defenses on both sides.

The Colts’ implied probability of winning is ~56%, and the Under 36.5 has a ~52% implied chance. Combined, this parlay offers roughly 30% implied probability (1.36 * 1.91 ≈ 2.6 * 1.91 ≈ 4.97, or ~20% return on a $100 bet). It’s not a sure thing, but it’s smarter than betting on the Ravens to “surprise” us.

Final Verdict: The Colts win this preseason dogfight by a touchdown, and the score stays under 37 points. Bet accordingly, and if it all goes wrong, at least you’ll have a great story for your fantasy league friends.

“The Ravens are the preseason’s version of a pop-up shop: exciting to look at, but you wouldn’t buy a house there.”

Created: Aug. 7, 2025, 4:32 a.m. GMT