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Parlay: Kansas City Royals VS Arizona Diamondbacks 2025-07-06

Same-Game Parlay: Arizona Diamondbacks to Win + Over 7.5 Runs
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Odds: 3.22 (1.61 x 2.0)

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Why This Parlay?
1. Arizona’s Offense = Power Play
- The D-backs rank 4th in MLB with 131 home runs.
- Josh Naylor (.303 BA) and a potent lineup (12th in MLB in runs per game) make them a high-scoring threat.

1. Royals’ Weak Hitting = Over 7.5 Runs
   - KC ranks 27th in slugging percentage (.366), but Arizona’s offense and starter Anthony DeSclafani (1st start of 2025) could lead to a high-scoring game.
   - The previous game in this series (9-3 KC win) had 12 runs, suggesting this matchup favors the Over.

1. Value in the Parlay
   - Arizona’s 1.61 moneyline odds (implied 62.1% chance to win) + Over 7.5 at 2.0 (implied 50% chance) = 3.22 combined odds (31.1% implied probability).
   - The D-backs have gone over the total in 46 of 87 games this season, aligning with their aggressive offense.

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Key Stats to Watch
- Arizona’s HR Power: 131 HRs (4th MLB) vs. KC’s 27th-ranked slugging (.366).
- Starting Pitchers: DeSclafani (1st start of 2025) vs. Michael Lorenzen (4.77 ERA).
- Recent Matchup: KC won 9-3 in their last meeting, with 12 combined runs.

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Risks to Consider
- DeSclafani’s first start of the season could be shaky.
- KC’s weak offense might limit their scoring, but Arizona’s bats should dominate.

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Verdict: This parlay balances Arizona’s strong offense with the Royals’ weak hitting, making the Over 7.5 runs a logical pick. The D-backs’ 62% implied win probability and KC’s 50% Over chance create a 3.22 payout with solid value.

Final Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks to Win + Over 7.5 Runs @ BetMGM (3.22).

“The D-backs hit like a wrecking ball, and KC’s pitching? A sieve. This one’s going to be a fireworks show.” 🔥

Created: July 6, 2025, 8:43 p.m. GMT