Parlay: Las Vegas Aces VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-10-08

WNBA Finals Game 3 Parlay Breakdown: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
Where underdogs, underdogs, and underdogs collide—plus, why you should bet on the Aces like they’re the last Uber driver at midnight.

1. Parsing the Odds: The Math of (Possible) Heartbreak
The Las Vegas Aces are the clear favorite here, with moneyline odds hovering around -150 to -160 (implied probability: ~61.5%), while the Phoenix Mercury sit at +240 to +260 (implied: ~28.6%). The spread is a modest Aces -3.5, with the total set at 164.5 points.

Let’s unpack this:
- Aces’ Offense: They’re scoring like a well-oiled espresso machine (21.2 assists/game, 84+ PPG in 4 of 5 games). A’ja Wilson is the WNBA’s version of a human highlight reel, averaging 25.4 PPG and nearly dropping a 30-pointer in Game 2 (“I dropped the ball on that one,” she deadpanned—ouch!).
- Mercury’s Survival Mode: Phoenix has gone OVER in 4 of 5 games, averaging 85.2 PPG. Their defense? A sieve that’s been upgraded to “porous sieve.” The Aces have exploited this, combining for 175 points in Games 1–2—10.5 points above the current total.

Key stat: The Aces’ 48.2% playoff shooting is like a marksman with a caffeine IV drip. Phoenix, meanwhile, is 1–5 ATS at home against Las Vegas since 2020—proof that the Aces’ “anyone on any given night” mantra isn’t just a slogan, it’s a curse.

2. News Digest: Injuries, Comebacks, and Why Phoenix Might Still Win
- Las Vegas: Despite losing Kelsey Plum, Alysha Clark, and Tiffany Hayes in the offseason, the Aces have leaned on their depth. Dana Evans (21 PPG off the bench) and Jewell Loyd are the NBA’s Steph Curry and Klay Thompson… if Steph and Klay were women and played in the desert. Coach Becky Hammon’s “anybody, any night” strategy has worked—so far.
- Phoenix: The Mercury’s “underdog” narrative is so 2014. Star Alyssa Thomas is playing like she’s auditioning for a Netflix drama (“Underdog: The Musical”), and Coach Nate Tibbetts insists they thrive on being written off. But let’s be real: Their only path to victory involves A’ja Wilson getting ejected for unsportsmanlike conduct and then coming back in the fourth quarter as a reserve.

Fun fact: The Aces’ bench outscored Phoenix’s starters in Game 1. That’s like your cousin winning a chess tournament while you’re napping.

3. The Humor: Why Phoenix Should Just Surrender (But Maybe Won’t)
The Mercury’s best hope is a script straight out of Rocky 4: an underdog story so underdog, it makes the Soviet Union donate basketballs. But here’s why they’ll likely fail:
- Aces’ Depth: Las Vegas’ bench is so deep, they could play a full game with just reserves and still win. Dana Evans is the team’s version of a “utility player”—if “utility” meant “someone who can hit threes while juggling”.
- Phoenix’s Defense: The Mercury’s defense is like a sieve that’s also on fire. A’ja Wilson’s 9.2 RPG and 2.7 BPG make her the WNBA’s version of a Swiss Army knife… but with more blocks and fewer actual uses.
- The Spread: At -3.5, the Aces aren’t even playing for pride—they’re playing for algebra.

Absurd analogy: Imagine the Mercury are a toaster. The Aces are the fire that ignites it. The spread is the smoke alarm. You know the toaster’s toast is getting burned, but you’re still betting on smoke.

4. The Parlay: Why You Should Bet Aces -3.5 & OVER 164.5
Leg 1: Aces -3.5
- The Aces have won 22 of 25 games post-All-Star break, and their playoff offense is dialed in. Even if Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas drops 25, the Aces’ balance (4 players averaging 12+ PPG) makes covering a 3.5-point spread as likely as a Tuesday night at a bar.

Leg 2: OVER 164.5
- Both teams rank in the top 3 in assists, and Phoenix’s “we’ll just shoot 3s and hope” strategy (they’re 9th in 3PT%) ensures chaos. The Aces’ 84+ PPG and Phoenix’s 85 PPG average? This game will explode like a piñata at a birthday party.

Juice Alert: The OVER is priced at -110 to -115, depending on the book, which is fair given the context. The Aces’ -3.5 is also efficient, given their 48.2% shooting and Phoenix’s porous defense.

Prediction: Aces Win 88–84, But You’ll Regret Not Betting the Parlay
The Aces will win Game 3 by 4–5 points, with A’ja Wilson dropping 28 and Chelsea Gray dishing out 10 dimes. Phoenix will score 84 points, but it’ll feel like 104 because their shots will bounce off the rim like they’re cursed by a disgruntled referee.

Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 88, Phoenix Mercury 84.

Parlay Payout: At +260 for a two-leg parlay (assuming -120 juice), a $100 bet nets $260. That’s $260 you’ll have if you don’t double up and bet it all on Game 4. (Don’t. Trust me.)

Bet like a comic, win like a mathematician. The Aces are your best bet—unless you enjoy crying into a bag of nachos. Take the parlay. 🏀🔥

Created: Oct. 6, 2025, 9:47 p.m. GMT