Parlay: Los Angeles Angels VS New York Yankees 2025-06-18

Best Same-Game Parlay: Yankees Moneyline + Over 9.5 Runs
Odds: ~2.72 (1.44 x 1.89)

Why This Works:
1. Yankees Moneyline (1.44 at FanDuel):
- The Yankees are 62.9% winners as favorites this season and lead the AL East (42-28).
- Their offense (2nd in MLB in home runs, led by Aaron Judge’s 26 HRs) dominates, while starter Ryan Yarbrough (4.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) isn’t elite but manageable.

Over 9.5 Runs (1.89 at FanDuel):
- Both teams rank in the top 10 in MLB in runs scored (Yankees: 5.4 RPG, Angels: 4.9 RPG).
- Yarbrough and Kochanowicz (4.85 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) have a combined 9.05 ERA in their last 10 starts, making a high-scoring game likely.

Key Context:
- The Yankees are 14-6 in games where they’re favored by -150 or more this season.
- The Angels are 10-4 in their last 14 games as underdogs, but their offense struggles against top-tier pitching. Kochanowicz lacks consistency, and the Yankees’ lineup (Judge, Giancarlo Stanton) thrives in high-pressure spots.

Avoid This Parlay If:
- Yarbrough’s velocity dips below 92 mph (he’s averaged 93.5 mph on fastballs this season).
- The Angels’ defense commits multiple errors (they’re 25th in MLB in fielding percentage).

Verdict: A smart, high-probability parlay that balances the Yankees’ dominance with the game’s high-scoring trend. The implied probability (~36.4%) is justified by the Yankees’ 63% win rate as favorites and the 68% over rate in their last 20 games.

Bonus Pick (Higher Risk, Higher Reward):
Yankees -1.5 Run Line (1.85 at FanDuel) + Over 9.5 Runs (1.89 at FanDuel) = ~3.49
The Yankees are -1.5 favorites, and their +1.5 run line covers are 12-5 this season. Still, this requires a 2-run margin.

Stick with the safer 2.72 parlay unless you’re chasing bigger payouts. 🎯⚾

Created: June 18, 2025, 5:36 p.m. GMT