Pikkit - Sports Betting Tracker, Odds, Insights & Analysis.

Create Parlays

Parlay: Los Angeles Angels VS New York Yankees 2025-06-19

Generated Image

Same-Game Parlay Recommendation: Yankees Win + Over 9.5 Runs
Odds: ~2.76 (176% Return)

Why This Works:
1. Yankees’ Offense Due for Regression
- The Yankees have been shut out for 27 straight innings, their longest drought since 2009. Statistically, this is unsustainable, and their .372 OBP (5th in MLB) suggests they’ll capitalize on high-leverage situations.
- Aaron Judge’s Matchup: Judge is a career .312/.443/.630 hitter against left-handed pitchers like Kochanowicz, who struggles with hard-hit rates (48.2% HR/FB) and allows a .345 wOBA.

  1. Kochanowicz’s Weaknesses
    - The Angels’ starter has a 5.12 ERA with a 12.1% walk rate and a 48.2% hard-hit rate. His low walk rate (1.5/9 IP) means the Yankees’ high walk rate (10.3% team BB%) will force him into longer at-bats, increasing run-scoring chances.

  1. Best Odds Available
    - FanDuel: Yankees Moneyline at +138 (implied 42.3% chance) + Over 9.5 Runs at +100 (50% chance).
    - Combined Implied Probability: 21.2% → 2.76x Return.
    - DraftKings: Yankees Moneyline at +135 + Over 9.5 Runs at +99.
    - Combined Implied Probability: 21.5% → 2.68x Return.

Rationale for the Parlay:
- The Yankees’ 6.8 runs/game average (1st in MLB) and Kochanowicz’s 5.12 ERA make the Over 9.5 a strong play.
- Manager Aaron Boone’s frustration with the scoring drought (27 IP of 0 runs) and Judge’s .372/.513/.836 slash line against lefties tilt the odds in favor of the Yankees breaking through.

Avoiding Risk:
- Don’t Add a Third Leg (e.g., Judge HR). Kochanowicz’s 12.1% HR/FB rate is a red flag, but adding a third leg would dilute the parlay’s value. Stick to two legs for optimal ROI.

Final Take:
This parlay leverages both the Yankees’ regression potential and Kochanowicz’s exploitable weaknesses. With the best odds at FanDuel, it’s a high-upside, data-driven play.

“Boone’s got a fire under this team, and Judge’s got a bat. Kochanowicz? He’s just a target.”The Handicapper’s Playbook

Created: June 19, 2025, 11:32 a.m. GMT