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Parlay: Los Angeles Angels VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-07-04

Same Game Parlay Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline + Over 9.5 Runs
Bookmaker: MyBookie.ag
Odds: 1.58 (Blue Jays ML) x 1.95 (Over) = +208.1 (+308.1 total)

Why This Parlay Works:
1. Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-166):
- The Blue Jays are MLB’s top favorites at +57.6% win rate as favorites this season.
- Their offense is elite (.258 BA, 6.7 Ks/game) with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.446 SLG) and George Springer (13 HRs) leading the charge.
- Starter Eric Lauer (2.60 ERA, 45 Ks in 45.2 IP) is a reliable arm, but Toronto’s offense is so strong they can afford a shaky start.

1. Over 9.5 Runs (1.95):
   - Toronto’s high-contact offense (MLB’s 3rd in batting average) and the Angels’ weak pitching staff (29th in Ks/game, .228 team BA) create a favorable matchup for scoring.
   - The Angels’ lineup, despite Taylor Ward’s 20 HRs, is prone to strikeouts (9.8/game) and lacks consistency.
   - A 9.5 total is low for this game; expect a combined 10+ runs given Toronto’s firepower and the Angels’ porous defense.

Implied Probability vs. Value:
- Blue Jays ML: 61.7% (100/(166-100)).
- Over 9.5: 51.3% (1/1.95).
- Combined Implied Probability: ~31.7% (1/(1.581.95)).
- Actual Probability Estimate:* ~33.9% (Toronto’s 61.7% x 55% Over).

Verdict: This parlay offers +208.1 odds, but the combined probability of 33.9% exceeds the implied 31.7%, making it a value bet. The Blue Jays’ offense and Angels’ pitching weaknesses tilt the Over in your favor.

Avoid These Combos:
- Blue Jays ML + Under 9.5: The Angels’ weak offense and Toronto’s high-contact hitting make the Under a poor choice.
- Angels ML + Over: The Angels are 47% as underdogs, and their low BA (.228) makes the Over unlikely.

Final Thought: Bet the Blue Jays and Over at MyBookie.ag for a +208.1 return. Fireworks in the Rogers Centre! 🎆⚾

Created: July 4, 2025, 11:48 a.m. GMT