Parlay: Los Angeles Dodgers VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-07-07

Same Game Parlay: Dodgers -1.5 Run Line & Under 7.5 Total
Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag
Odds: +519 (Combined)

Why This Parlay?
1. Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (+228):
- The Dodgers boast MLB’s top slugging percentage (.455) and average 1.5 HRs/game.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8-6) is projected for 5.7 strikeouts, suggesting strong control.
- The Brewers rank 22nd in slugging (.381), making them vulnerable to elite offenses.

Under 7.5 Total (-113):
- The model projects just 0.9 hits for Christian Yelich and 1.0 for Freddie Freeman, hinting at low offensive output.
- Freddy Peralta (9-4) has a solid record but faces a high-powered lineup. The Brewers’ .381 team slugging is a red flag.
- Both teams’ pitching projections (Yamamoto’s 5.7 Ks + Peralta’s 7.2 Ks) lean toward a low-scoring game.

Implied Probability & Value:
- Dodgers -1.5: 1 / (1 + 228/100) ≈ 31%
- Under 7.5: 113 / (100 + 113) ≈ 53%
- Combined Implied Probability: 31% * 53% ≈ 16.4%
- Bookmaker Odds: +519 (≈16.1% implied) → Slight value due to tight alignment with model projections.

Rationale:
- The Dodgers’ offensive firepower and Yamamoto’s strikeout potential offset their recent 3-game skid.
- The Brewers’ weak slugging and the model’s hit projections favor a low-scoring game.
- This parlay balances risk/reward, leveraging the Dodgers’ edge in power and the Brewers’ defensive struggles.

Final Note:
Avoid parlays with overlapping outcomes (e.g., both teams winning). Stick to this 2-leg combo for a calculated, data-driven edge.

Created: July 7, 2025, 2:56 p.m. GMT