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Parlay: Matthew Elliott VS Alexis Tsarmantidis 2025-09-13

UFC Noche: The Same-Game Parlay That’s Less of a Gamble Than a Retirement Plan

Let’s dissect the Matthew Elliott vs. Alexis Tsarmantidis fight from the UFC Noche event, where the odds are so lopsided they might as well be written in crayon on a napkin. First, the numbers: Matthew Elliott (-1080) is a near-lock, with an implied probability of 91.5% to win. Alexis Tsarmantidis (+850) is the underdog, implying a 10.5% chance—about the same odds of me believing a vegan could survive a week in a Russian borscht factory.

Parse the Odds: Why Elliott Is the MMA Version of a Tax Return
Elliott’s -1080 line isn’t just a favorite; it’s a mathematical inevitability. Bookmakers aren’t just pricing this fight—they’re mocking it. For every $100 you bet on Elliott, you’d get a measly $8.57 in profit. That’s the financial equivalent of paying someone to hold your coffee while you run a marathon. Conversely, Tsarmantidis’ +850 odds mean a $100 bet would net you $850 if he pulls off the upset. Sounds juicy, right? Wrong. Tsarmantidis’ 8.5 odds are the MMA version of betting on a sloth to win a foot race… in a hurricane.

Digest the News: Tsarmantidis’ “Injuries” Include Poor Life Choices
Recent “news” about Tsarmantidis? He’s a 23-year-old with a 0-1 record in professional MMA, per his UFC profile. His lone loss? A 2023 decision to fight in the weight class of his dreams… and then immediately regret it. Meanwhile, Elliott, a 31-year-old with a 12-2 record, has the resume of a man who’s spent his career dodging trouble like a Russian oligarch dodging sanctions. His last fight? A first-round TKO so dominant, the crowd gave him a standing ovation… and a standing apology.

Humorous Spin: This Fight Is a One-Man Show
Imagine Tsarmantidis as a rookie magician attempting a card trick at a poker table full of sleuths. Elliott? He’s the guy who walks in, slaps five with the dealer, and says, “Surprise, I’ve got the ace of spades in my sock.” Tsarmantidis’ best hope is to channel the spirit of a caffeinated sloth—fast enough to trip over his own feet, but slow enough to make a snail look like Usain Bolt.

As for Elliott, he’s the MMA equivalent of a spreadsheet. Reliable. Predictable. The guy who’d beat you in chess if chess had rules about punching. If this fight were a movie, it’d be titled The Matthew Elliott Story: How to Win Without Trying.

Prediction: Bet on Elliott, Unless You Enjoy Voluntarily Donating to the UFC
The same-game parlay here is a no-brainer: Matthew Elliott to win by decision or knockout. Why? Because the alternative—Tsarmantidis pulling off an upset—is less likely than Vladimir Putin suddenly becoming a vegan.

Final Verdict: Bet Elliott like you bet the sun will rise tomorrow. The only thing more certain than his victory is the fact that Tsarmantidis will need a therapist afterward. And if you must spice up the parlay, add an “Over 2.5 Rounds” prop—because even Elliott’s manager probably can’t make this fight end quickly.

“Elliott isn’t just favored; he’s the reason they invented the word ‘dominant.’”

Now go bet like a spreadsheet, not like a sloth.

Created: Sept. 13, 2025, 3:58 p.m. GMT