Parlay: Max Holloway VS Dustin Poirier 2025-07-19

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier: A Same-Game Parlay for the Ages
Where MMA Meets Absurdity

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a third round of The Greatest Show on Earth—or as Max Holloway might call it, “a Netflix special with a punchline.” On July 19, Holloway and Dustin Poirier will collide in a UFC 318 rematch that’s less about who’s better and more about who’s less broken. Let’s break down the odds, news, and why this fight is the MMA equivalent of a broken toaster: it’s chaotic, unpredictable, and somehow still worth watching.

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Tacos
The numbers tell a story of a near-even matchup with a slight edge to Holloway. DraftKings lists Holloway at -174 (implied probability: 63.6%) and Poirier at +212 (36.4%). That’s like saying a taco truck is more reliable than a food truck—both serve questionable meat, but one has a better Yelp rating.

The spread? Holloway’s -5.5 (-110) vs. Poirier’s +5.5 (-110). If you’re betting on the spread, you’re essentially asking, “Will Max’s ego or Dustin’s retirement jitters tip the scales?” The totals line is Over 4.5 rounds at -160 (62.5% implied) and Under 4.5 at +130 (43.5%). Given their history of war—Poirier’s 2019 TKO and Holloway’s 2012 submission—it’s safe to say this won’t be a nap.

Digesting the News: Injuries, Motivation, and Midlife Crises
Holloway, the “Blessed” one, is coming off a loss to Ilia Topuria. His defense? “I’m in the entertainment business!” Translation: “I’m too old to fight, but I’m too stubborn to retire.” Meanwhile, Poirier, 38 and fighting for the last time, is a man on a mission. “I want to go out on top,” he said. Translation: “I’ll take a nap in the octagon if it means my legacy isn’t a footnote.”

Holloway’s camp claims Poirier’s age and recent loss to Islam Makhachev (a man with the grappling skills of a grizzly bear) make him vulnerable. Poirier’s camp fires back: “Max’s chin is weaker than my ex’s Instagram password.” The UFC’s love of drama? That’s the real third fighter here, booking Paddy Pimblett vs. Topuria just to keep Holloway’s title hopes in limbo.

The Humor: Why This Fight is Like a Family Feud
Let’s be real: Holloway and Poirier’s rivalry is the MMA version of a sibling spat. They’ve fought twice, they’ll fight again if the UFC says “Hey, we need another fireworks sale,” and neither can walk away without a press conference.

Holloway’s defense is like a sieve trying to hold water at a pool party. Poirier’s leg kicks? A garden hose.
- Poirier’s motivation is a ticking clock. He’s fighting for a final curtain call, while Holloway’s fighting to prove he’s not a “one-hit wonder” (i.e., his 2016 reign as featherweight champ).
- The UFC’s scheduling? A game of Jenga. Move one fight, and the whole tower collapses into a pile of lawsuits and fan outrage.

The Parlay: Why You Should Bet on Holloway + Over 4.5 Rounds
Holloway to Win (-174) + Over 4.5 Rounds (-160) = A 5.5% Profit if Correct
This parlay is the MMA equivalent of ordering a pizza and getting free garlic knots. Here’s why:

Holloway’s Experience: He’s 34-5-1 in his career, with a 12-2 record against Poirier. That’s like a 75% win rate in a sport where most fighters can’t spell “win rate.”
2. Poirier’s Age: At 38, his stamina is a ticking clock. Holloway’s younger, hungrier, and less likely to trip over his own ego mid-fight.
3. The Drama: The UFC won’t let this fight end early. They need a 15-minute spectacle to justify the pay-per-view price tag.

Bonus Joke: If Poirier wins, the UFC will throw a parade… for his retirement. If Holloway wins, he’ll demand a title shot, then trip over his own words trying to explain why he’s still relevant.

Prediction: Holloway’s Redemption, Poirier’s Farewell Tour
This fight is a coin flip with a slight edge to Holloway, who’ll likely win by decision or late-round TKO. The Over 4.5 rounds is a no-brainer—these two have blood in their water, and neither will quit.

Final Verdict: Bet Holloway to win and the Over 4.5 rounds. It’s the MMA version of buying a lottery ticket: low chance of winning, but the payout makes you feel like a genius.

As Poirier said, “I want to go out on top.” Too bad the UFC might bury this fight in a vault after it’s over.

Created: July 18, 2025, 1:25 a.m. GMT

Parlay: Max Holloway VS Dustin Poirier 2025-07-19

The Humor: Why This Fight is Like a Family Feud Let’s be real: Holloway and Poirier’s rivalry is the MMA version of a sibling spat. They’ve fought twice, they’ll fight again if the UFC says “Hey, we need another fireworks sale,” and neither can walk away without a press conference.

The Parlay: Why You Should Bet on Holloway + Over 4.5 Rounds Holloway to Win (-174) + Over 4.5 Rounds (-160) = A 5.5% Profit if Correct This parlay is the MMA equivalent of ordering a pizza and getting free garlic knots. Here’s why:

Prediction: Holloway’s Redemption, Poirier’s Farewell Tour This fight is a coin flip with a slight edge to Holloway, who’ll likely win by decision or late-round TKO. The Over 4.5 rounds is a no-brainer—these two have blood in their water, and neither will quit.

The Humor: Why This Fight is Like a Family Feud
Let’s be real: Holloway and Poirier’s rivalry is the MMA version of a sibling spat. They’ve fought twice, they’ll fight again if the UFC says “Hey, we need another fireworks sale,” and neither can walk away without a press conference.

The Parlay: Why You Should Bet on Holloway + Over 4.5 Rounds
Holloway to Win (-174) + Over 4.5 Rounds (-160) = A 5.5% Profit if Correct
This parlay is the MMA equivalent of ordering a pizza and getting free garlic knots. Here’s why:

Prediction: Holloway’s Redemption, Poirier’s Farewell Tour
This fight is a coin flip with a slight edge to Holloway, who’ll likely win by decision or late-round TKO. The Over 4.5 rounds is a no-brainer—these two have blood in their water, and neither will quit.