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Parlay: Milwaukee Brewers VS Miami Marlins 2025-07-05

Same-Game Parlay: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline + Under 8.5 Total Runs
Bookmaker: BetRivers
Odds: Brewers ML (-115) = 1.65 | Under 8.5 = 1.89
Combined Payout: 3.12 (312/100)

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Why This Parlay Works
1. Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-115):
- The Brewers are 28-15 as favorites this season (64.7% win rate) and have a 3.80 team ERA.
- Starter Quinn Priester (6-2, 3.35 ERA) has been effective, and the Brewers’ offense (85 HRs, 22nd in MLB) isn’t reliant on power, which suits a low-scoring game.
- Implied probability: 53.5% (115/(115+100)).

1. Under 8.5 Total Runs (1.89):
   - Miami has the 8th-worst offense in MLB and has gone UNDER in 8 straight home games.
   - Sandy Alcantara (6.98 ERA) is a liability, but Priester’s control (3.35 ERA) and the Marlins’ lack of pop (4.75 ERA) make this a low-scoring matchup.
   - Implied probability: 52.6% (1/1.89).

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Edge Analysis
- Combined Implied Probability: 53.5% * 52.6% = 28.1%
- Actual Combined Probability:
- Brewers’ 64.7% win rate as favorites + 52.6% under probability = 34% (positive edge).
- Payout: 1.65 * 1.89 = 3.12 (312/100).

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Key Trends
- Marlins’ Home Struggles: Miami is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games but has a .238 team batting average at home.
- Priester vs. Alcantara: Priester’s 3.35 ERA vs. Alcantara’s 6.98 ERA creates a clear pitching mismatch.
- Recent Under Trends: The UNDER is 8-0 in Miami’s last 8 home games, with 5 of those games finishing with 4 total runs or fewer.

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Final Verdict
This parlay capitalizes on Milwaukee’s recent dominance as a favorite and **Miami

Created: July 5, 2025, 12:09 p.m. GMT