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Parlay: Milwaukee Brewers VS New York Mets 2025-07-01

Same-Game Parlay Pick: Mets Moneyline + Under 8 Runs
Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag
Odds: +237 (Combined Decimal: 3.37)

Why This Works:
1. Mets Moneyline (-132):
- Implied Probability: 56.3%
- The Mets are strong favorites with a 48-37 record and a 3.47 ERA (4th in MLB). Their pitching staff, led by Clay Holmes, should neutralize the Brewers' offense.

1. Under 8 Runs (-110):
   - Implied Probability: 51.8%
   - Both teams have elite pitching: Mets (3.47 ERA) vs. Brewers (3.78 ERA). Freddy Peralta (2.90 ERA) and Clay Holmes (likely strong outing) form a pitcher’s duel.

Calculated Edge:
- Combined Implied Probability: 56.3% * 51.8% = 29.1%
- Bookmaker Implied Probability: 1 / (1.75 * 1.93) ≈ 29.6%
- Juice: Minimal (5.1% total juice), making this a low-risk, high-reward parlay.

Key Context:
- The Mets have won 39 of 60 games as favorites, while the Brewers are 18-41 as underdogs.
- The Over/Under line of 8 runs is inflated for a pitcher’s duel; both teams’ ERAs suggest a low-scoring game.

Verdict: A smart, data-driven parlay with a 29.1% chance of hitting and +237 payout (3.37x return). Go with the Mets and Under at BetOnline.ag.

“This isn’t a pick, it’s a math problem. The Mets and Under are the only numbers that add up.” — The Sports Algo 🧮⚾

Created: July 1, 2025, 7:09 p.m. GMT