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Parlay: New York Mets VS Atlanta Braves 2025-06-18

Best Same-Game Parlay for Mets vs. Braves (6/18/2025):
1. New York Mets +1.5 Run Line @ 1.74 (Best at BetMGM)
2. Under 8.5 Total Runs @ 1.95 (Best at BetMGM)

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Why This Parlay Works
1. Mets +1.5 Spread:
- The Mets have the lowest ERA in MLB (2.97) and face a Braves offense ranked 24th in MLB in runs per game (4.12).
- Despite Paul Blackburn’s struggles (6.75 ERA), the Mets’ bullpen is elite, and the Braves’ offense (15th in MLB with 76 HRs) lacks consistency.
- The Mets are 45-27 and have shown resilience after blowing a two-run lead in Game 1.

1. Under 8.5 Total Runs:
   - Chris Sale (2.79 ERA, 107 Ks) vs. Mets’ .293 team batting average? Not a high-scoring matchup.
   - The Mets’ 2.97 ERA and Braves’ 4.12 RA suggest a pitcher’s duel.
   - Both teams rank in the top 10 in MLB in run prevention (Mets 1st, Braves 12th).

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Odds Breakdown
- Combined Implied Probability: 1.74 (Mets +1.5) × 1.95 (Under 8.5) = 3.39 (29.5% chance).
- Potential Payout: A $100 bet yields $339 (risking $100 to win $239).

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Key Stats to Watch
- Chris Sale’s dominance: 2.79 ERA, 107 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings.
- Mets’ bullpen: 3.45 ERA (3rd in MLB).
- Braves’ offense: 4.12 runs per game (24th in MLB).

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Why Not the Over?
- The Over is priced at 1.87–1.91 across books, but the Under is more logical given both teams’ strong pitching and the Braves’ weak offense.

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Final Verdict: This 2-leg parlay balances value and logic. The Mets’ ability to cover the spread as underdogs and the low-scoring environment make this a sharp play. BetMGM offers the best combined odds.

“The Mets’ pitching and the Braves’ inconsistent offense set up a classic pitcher’s duel—play the Under and trust the spread.” 🎯

Created: June 18, 2025, 5:40 p.m. GMT