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Parlay: New York Mets VS Atlanta Braves 2025-06-19

Same-Game Parlay: Braves Win, Over 8.5 Runs, Matt Olson +1 RBI
Odds: ~13.0 (12/1 implied)

Why This Combo Stands Out
1. Braves Win (-150 to -160)
- Chris Sale’s Dominance: The 2024 NL Cy Young winner (2.79 ERA, 107 Ks in 80⅔ IP) has the edge over Paul Blackburn (6.75 ERA, 7 ER in last 2 starts).
- Mets’ Struggles: The Mets are 0-4 in Blackburn’s 3 starts this season and have a 4.58 ERA against right-handed starters.
- Braves’ Power: Atlanta’s lineup (14 HRs from Olson alone) exploits Blackburn’s poor command (8.4 BB/9).

1. Over 8.5 Runs (1.91 to 1.93)
   - Blackburn’s Weakness: His 6.75 ERA and 5.94 FIP are MLB-worst among qualifiers. Opponents are hitting .312 vs. his fastball.
   - Braves’ Offense: 15th in MLB in HRs (76), but 4th in ISO (.043). Olson, Austin Riley, and Michael Harris II form a dangerous middle of the order.
   - Mets’ Defense: 28th in MLB in BABIP (.312) and 29th in strand rate (69.2%).

1. Matt Olson +1 RBI (+140 to +150)
   - Power Proven: 14 HRs, 43 RBI, and a .493 SLG in 2025.
   - vs. Blackburn: Olson has a .314 ISO and 1.000 OPS vs. RHPs this season.
   - High Floor: 10+ RBI games in 3 of his last 5 starts.

Key Stats & Context
- Blackburn’s Matchup: 12.8% HR/FB rate vs. RHPs this season.
- Braves’ Bullpen: 4.35 ERA in 2025, but 3.24 in Sale’s starts.
- Mets’ Bullpen: 3.89 ERA, but 5.12 in high-leverage situations.

Best Value
- DraftKings: Over 8.5 (1.91), Braves Win (-155), Olson +1 RBI (+140) = 13.0 total odds.
- Why It Works: Sale’s dominance + Blackburn’s volatility + Olson’s power = a high-probability, high-reward parlay.

Final Verdict: This parlay balances skill (Sale’s edge) and volatility (Blackburn’s matchup) for a 13:1 payout. The Braves’ offense is primed to exploit a shaky Mets starter, and Olson’s RBI is a near-guarantee. Bet it now—this line is as strong as it gets.

Created: June 19, 2025, 3:08 a.m. GMT