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Parlay: New York Mets VS Baltimore Orioles 2025-07-10

Mets vs. Orioles Same-Game Parlay Breakdown
July 10, 2025 | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | 12:05 p.m. ET

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1. Key Statistics
- Mets (53-39, 65.6% win rate when favored):
- Team ERA: 3.57 (MLB’s 6th-best).
- David Peterson (2.85 ERA in 2025) starts, with a 68% K rate vs. LHBs.
- Offense: Juan Soto (1.025 OPS in July) and Pete Alonso (15 HRs) anchor a .268 team BA.

• Orioles (40-50, 42.9% win rate as underdogs):
  - Team ERA: 4.94 (25th in MLB).
  - Charlie Morton (4.12 ERA) starts; his 7.3 BB/9 rate vs. LHBs is a red flag.
  - Offense: Jackson Holliday (2 HRs in 2 games) and Gunnar Henderson (.312 BA) lead a .241 team BA.

Head-to-Head: The Mets have outscored the Orioles 5.2 to 4.1 in their 3 matchups this season.

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2. Injuries/Updates
- No major injuries listed for either team.
- Mets’ Francisco Lindor (18 HRs, .302 BA) is healthy and a key threat.
- Orioles’ Ryan O’Hearn (12 HRs) is questionable for the series finale but plays today.

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3. Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations

Moneyline
- Mets (-138): Implied probability = 57.98%.
- Adjusted probability (using MLB favorite win rate of 59%): (57.98% + 59%) / 2 = 58.49%.
- EV = +0.51% (slight edge).

• Orioles (+220): Implied probability = 31.25%.
  - Adjusted probability (using MLB underdog win rate of 41%): (31.25% + 41%) / 2 = 36.13%.
  - EV = -5.12% (no value).

Totals
- Over 9 Runs (1.83): Implied probability = 54.64%.
- Combined ERAs: 3.57 (Mets) + 4.94 (Orioles) = 8.51.
- Expected total ≈ 8.5 runs → Under has value.
- Adjusted probability: 55% (vs. 54.64% implied).
- EV = +0.36%.

• Under 9 Runs (1.99): Implied probability = 50.25%.
  - Adjusted probability: 55% → EV = +4.75%.

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4. Best Same-Game Parlay
Mets Moneyline (-138) + Under 9 Runs (-101)
- Combined Implied Probability:
- Moneyline: 57.98% → Adjusted: 58.49%.
- Under: 50.25% → Adjusted: 55%.
- Total Adjusted Probability: 58.49% * 55% = 32.17%.
- Parlay Odds: (1.7 * 1.99) = 3.48 (348%) → Implied probability: 28.74%.
- EV = 32.17% - 28.74% = +3.43%.

Why This Works:
- The Mets’ elite pitching (Peterson + 3.57 team ERA) and the Orioles’ leaky bullpen (5.15 ERA) suggest a low-scoring game.
- The Under is a +4.75% EV standalone bet, and the Mets’ moneyline has a +0.51% edge. Combining them creates a +3.43% EV parlay.

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5. Final Recommendation
Bet: Mets Moneyline (-138) + Under 9 Runs (-101)
- Odds: 348% (1.7 * 1.99).
- EV: +3.43% (strong value).
- Risk: Moderate (both legs must hit).

Alternative Play: If the total is set at 9.5 Runs, the Under (1.83) becomes a +1.78% EV standalone bet. Pair it with the Mets moneyline for a +2.3% EV parlay.

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Final Thought: The Orioles’ “hot streak” (Holliday’s HRs) is a red herring. The Mets’ pitching and the Orioles’ offense (25th in MLB in runs scored) make this a pitcher’s duel. Take the Under and the favorite—Camden Yards’ cool July weather won’t help the long ball.

“The only thing hotter than Holliday’s bat is the Mets’ ERA. Cover up, Baltimore.” 🎩⚾

Created: July 10, 2025, 12:48 p.m. GMT