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Parlay: New York Red Bulls VS Philadelphia Union 2025-07-12

Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls: The Same-Game Parlay Playbook
Where MLS meets math, and Raheem Edwards meets a red card.

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Key Statistics & Trends
1. Philadelphia Union:
- Recent Form: 1 loss, 1 draw in last 2 matches.
- Injuries: Mikael Uhre (questionable, hip injury) — a key offensive threat.
- Home Edge: 13-match winless streak vs. NYRB since 2019, but home field still offers a psychological boost.

1. New York Red Bulls:
   - Recent Form: 0-1-3 in last 4 matches, including 3 consecutive draws.
   - Injuries: Raheem Edwards (suspended) — a critical defensive piece.
   - Head-to-Head: 13-game winless streak vs. Union — a cursed rivalry?

1. Goal Trends:
   - Union’s last 3 games: 1.33 goals per game.
   - Red Bulls’ last 4 games: 1.25 goals per game.
   - Combined: A low-scoring, tight match is likely — but don’t bet on it.

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Odds Breakdown & Implied Probabilities
Using FanDuel’s H2H and Totals lines for simplicity.

| Outcome | Odds (Decimal) | Implied Probability |
|--------------------------|----------------|---------------------|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.71 | 58.5% |
| New York Red Bulls | 4.4 | 22.7% |
| Draw | 3.9 | 25.6% |
| Over 2.75 Goals | 1.91 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.75 Goals | 1.91 | 52.3% |

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EV Calculations & Adjustments
Soccer underdogs win 41% of the time — not 22.7%. Let’s fix that.

1. New York Red Bulls (Underdog):
   - Implied: 22.7%
   - Adjusted: (22.7% + 41%) / 2 = 31.8%
   - EV: 31.8% > 22.7% → +9.1% edge.

1. Over 2.75 Goals:
   - Implied: 52.3%
   - Adjusted: No adjustment (EV framework doesn’t apply to totals).
   - Rationale: Both teams’ recent low-scoring trends suggest caution, but injuries and defensive fragility could lead to a chaotic match.

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The Best Same-Game Parlay
Bet: New York Red Bulls + Over 2.75 Goals
Odds: 4.4 (Red Bulls) × 1.91 (Over) = 8.404 (11.9% implied)
Adjusted Probability: 31.8% (Red Bulls) × 52.3% (Over) = 16.6%
EV: +4.7% (16.6% > 11.9%)

Why This Works:
- The Red Bulls’ 13-game winless streak vs. the Union is a psychological albatross, but their recent "close losses" (e.g., "pushing them to the edge," per Stroud) suggest they’re capable of scoring.
- Philadelphia’s Uhre is questionable — a major blow to their attack.
- The Over hinges on defensive chaos: Both teams are injury-riddled, and the Union’s shaky backline (Uhre’s absence) + Red Bulls’ missing Edwards = a recipe for defensive mayhem.

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Honorable Mentions
1. Philadelphia Union + Under 2.75 Goals (1.71 × 1.91 = 3.27 odds):
- Adjusted EV: 58.5% (Union) × 52.3% (Under) = 30.6% vs. 30.5% implied → +0.1% edge.
- A safer play, but the EV is razor-thin.

1. Draw + Under 2.75 Goals (3.9 × 1.91 = 7.45 odds):
   - Adjusted EV: 25.6% (Draw) × 52.3% (Under) = 13.4% vs. 13.4% implied → Neutral EV.
   - A "safe" bet, but not worth the effort.

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Final Verdict
Take the Red Bulls + Over 2.75 Goals.
- Confidence: 7/10 (injuries + historical trends favor chaos).
- Humor: "The Red Bulls haven’t beaten the Union since 2019, but they’ve also never not tried to lose gracefully. Tonight, they’ll either break the streak or score a last-minute equalizer. Either way, there’ll be goals."

Place your bets, then blame the Union’s hip injury gods if it blows up in your face. 🎲⚽

Created: July 12, 2025, 8:49 p.m. GMT