Parlay: New York Yankees VS New York Mets 2025-07-05

Best Same-Game Parlay for Yankees vs. Mets (2025-07-05):
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Combination:
1. New York Yankees Moneyline (1.63)
2. Under 9.0 Runs (1.84)

Total Implied Probability:
- Yankees ML: 1 / 1.63 ≈ 61.3%
- Under 9.0 Runs: 1 / 1.84 ≈ 54.3%
- Combined: 61.3% * 54.3% ≈ 33.3% (implied odds: 3.04).

Why This Works:
- Yankees Moneyline Value: Despite being underdogs, the Yankees have a strong offensive lineup (Judge, Alonso) and a returning pitcher expected to deliver a quality start. Jimmie Kaylor’s expert pick leans on their motivation to end a 4-game losing streak.
- Under 9.0 Runs Logic: The Mets’ starter (Justin Hagenman, 1st MLB start) has struggled this season, and their team has the highest ground ball rate in MLB (favoring low-scoring games). The Yankees’ recent trend of 47/81 Under games also supports this.

Key Stats:
- Yankees’ pitcher: Expected quality start (6+ innings, 3+ ER).
- Mets’ ground ball rate: 58.2% (MLB-high), leading to weak contact and low scoring.
- Yankees’ Under trend: 58.0% of their games (47/81) have gone Under.

Rationale:
This parlay hinges on a low-scoring game where the Yankees’ offense capitalizes on Hagenman’s inexperience. The Mets’ reliance on ground balls and the Yankees’ strong Under trend make the Under 9.0 Runs a solid pick. Pairing it with the Yankees ML gives you a 3.04 odds parlay, offering value if you believe the actual win probability is higher than the implied 33.3%.

Avoid Overcomplicating:
While the original SGP included strikeouts and first-inning moneyline, those props aren’t listed in the provided data. Stick to the ML + Under combo—it’s clean, backed by stats, and available at top odds on DraftKings.

Final Verdict:
Yankees ML (-150) + Under 9.0 Runs (-110) = 3.04 odds. A smart, data-driven play for a classic Subway Series clash.

Created: July 5, 2025, 12:11 p.m. GMT