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Parlay: New York Yankees VS New York Mets 2025-07-06

Same-Game Parlay: New York Mets +1.5 & Over 9 Runs
Bookmaker: BetOnline.ag
Odds: 3.88 (2.0 x 1.94)
Implied Probability: ~25.8%

Why This Works:
1. Mets +1.5 Spread (2.0):
- Frankie Montas’ shaky last start (-6 ER) vs. Carlos Rodon’s elite 2.95 ERA/1.00 WHIP creates a mismatch.
- The Mets won Game 1 6-5, showing they can capitalize on Rodon’s high-strikeout, high-risk profile.
- A +1.5 spread means the Mets just need to avoid a blowout loss (e.g., 5-4, 4-3, or a win).

1. Over 9 Runs (1.94):
   - The model projects 6.6 runs off Rodon, suggesting a high-scoring game.
   - Both lineups are loaded: Yankees (Aaron Judge +230 HR) and Mets (Pete Alonso +320 HR) have explosive power.
   - Rodon’s 123 strikeouts this season hint at aggressive swings—good for offense, bad for pitcher control.

Key Stats:
- Rodon’s 6.6-run projection (vs. 3.1 expected from Montas) = 10+ total runs likely.
- Mets’ +1.5 spread is a win or tie (e.g., 5-4, 4-3).
- Best value at 3.88 (BetOnline.ag) vs. 3.74 (BetRivers) and 3.80 (others).

Avoid: Yankees -1.5 & Under 9 Runs (1.83 x 1.87 = 3.42) – Rodon’s model projection and the Mets’ offensive firepower make this a poor fit.

Final Verdict:
This parlay hinges on Rodon’s high-risk, high-reward start and the Mets’ ability to avoid a lopsided loss. If you trust the model’s Over projection and the Mets’ underdog edge, this is a smart, high-reward play.

“Rodon’s a strikeout machine, but he’s also a leaky dam. Bet the Mets to stay close and the game to blow out—because in a Subway Series, chaos is the only thing you can count on.” 🎯

Created: July 6, 2025, 1:16 p.m. GMT