Parlay: Nikolay Veretennikov VS Francisco Prado 2025-07-19
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 & Prado vs. Veretennikov – The Same-Game Parlay Play
Let’s dive into the chaos of UFC 318, where nostalgia, pride, and the occasional circus acrobat (see: Max Holloway’s BMF title defense) collide. The main event pits Dustin Poirier (retirement party + home-state hero) against Max Holloway (BMF title + “I’ll ruin your night” bravado). Meanwhile, Francisco Prado (-142) aims to bounce back against Nikolay Veretennikov (+120), a 35-year-old journeyman. Let’s parse the odds, news, and absurdity to craft a same-game parlay that’s as sharp as Poirier’s jabs.
Click Here to Install Pikkit - Sports Betting Tracker, Odds, Insights & Analysis.
Click Here to Install Pikkit - Sports Betting Tracker, Odds, Insights & Analysis.
1. Parse the Odds: The Math of Heartbreak and Hope
Holloway (-148) vs. Poirier (+124):
- Implied probabilities: Holloway is favored at 59.6%, Poirier at 45.5%.
- Trilogy curse: Underdogs in third fights go 7-20 historically. Poirier’s “home-court advantage” is offset by Holloway’s title motivation.
- Aging legends: Holloway (32) and Poirier (34) are like two overcooked steaks—still tough, but not bouncing back from burns.
Prado (-142) vs. Veretennikov (+120):
- Implied probabilities: Prado at 56.5%, Veretennikov at 47.6%.
- Expert take: Prado’s “power, pressure, and toughness” (per Daniel Vithlani) vs. Veretennikov’s “journeyman” status. Age (12 years) and UFC inexperience (0-2) work against the latter.
- Over 2.5 rounds (-142): DraftKings’ line suggests a 56.5% chance of a 3+ round war.
2. Digest the News: Injuries, Quotes, and Existential Crises
- Poirier’s retirement: He’s fighting in Louisiana, where the crowd’s love is as thick as gumbo. But retiring after a loss? That’s a bittersweet ending like a peach cobbler with one rotten pit.
- Holloway’s BMF title: He’s defending it like a caffeinated guard dog. His pre-fight stare-down? Intense enough to make Veretennikov’s kickboxing career seem like a nap.
- Prado’s potential: At 23, he’s the “prospect” vs. Veretennikov’s “hashtag millennial.” Vithlani calls Prado a “dynamic striker”—translation: he’s less likely to trip over his own feet mid-kick.
3. Humorous Spin: The Absurdity of MMA
- Holloway’s BMF title: It’s like a college degree in bravado. “BMF” stands for “Baddest Motherfer,” but let’s be real—it’s just a neon sign saying, “I paid $50 for this belt on Etsy.”
- *Poirier’s farewell: Imagine retiring after a loss. It’s like ending a concert with an encore… only the encore is, “Actually, that was the encore.”
- Veretennikov’s age: At 35, he’s old enough to remember when “UFC” stood for “Ultimate Fighting Championship” and not “Ultimate Financial Hardship.”
4. Prediction: The Parlay Play
Same-Game Parlay: Holloway by Decision (-148) + Prado Wins (-142) + Over 2.5 Rounds (-142)
- Why it works:
1. Holloway by decision: The trilogy’s “third time’s a charm” curse and Holloway’s title defense make this the safest bet. Poirier’s heart won’t outpace Holloway’s experience.
2. Prado wins: His youth, power, and pressure should dismantle Veretennikov. Think of it as a young lion (Prado) taking down a tired gazelle (Veretennikov) who’s still trying to remember the fight’s rules.
3. Over 2.5 rounds: MMA fights are like Netflix series—longer than expected. Prado’s dynamism vs. Veretennikov’s journeyman durability = a 3-round slugfest.
Odds: Combining -148, -142, and -142 yields roughly +250 (depending on bookmaker). It’s a high-risk, high-reward play, but with Holloway’s methodical style and Prado’s youth, this parlay is as solid as a well-timed uppercut.
Final Verdict: Bet on Holloway to outlast Poirier in a decision, Prado to capitalize on Veretennikov’s age, and the Prado fight to go the distance. Unless Poirier pulls a “last dance” miracle, this parlay is your ticket to a retirement party with a side of profit. 🥂
Created: July 19, 2025, 7:53 p.m. GMT