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Parlay: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Seattle Mariners 2025-07-04

Best Same-Game Parlay Bet: Seattle Mariners to Win + Under 7.5 Runs
Bookmaker: Caesars (WilliamHill_us)
Combined Odds: +176 (2.76 decimal)

Why This Parlay?
1. Seattle Mariners to Win (-198 Moneyline):
- The Mariners are a strong home team (30-26 in home games) and boast a 2.75 ERA from ace Bryan Woo. Their .405 slugging percentage and 114 home runs suggest power, but their pitching staff (3.94 ERA) and the Pirates' weak offense (29th in HRs) make this a low-scoring matchup.
- Implied Probability: 66.2% (198 / (198 + 100)).

1. Under 7.5 Runs (-205):
   - The Pirates rank 7th in MLB ERA (3.65), and the Mariners’ 3.94 ERA is decent but not elite. The Under is favored at 1.83 (54.6% implied probability) across books, reflecting the low-offense matchup.
   - Implied Probability: 54.6% (1 / 1.83).

Combined Value:
- Total Implied Probability: 66.2% * 54.6% = 36.1%
- Bookmaker Odds: 1 / 2.76 ≈ 36.2%
- Edge: The implied probability (36.1%) is nearly identical to the bookmaker’s line, but the article’s sentiment ("Pirates' streak will end in Seattle") and the teams’ stats (Pirates’ .307 BA vs. Mariners’ 3.94 ERA) suggest the Mariners’ win probability is higher than 66.2%, creating value.

How to Build the Parlay:
- Mariners to Win (-198) + Under 7.5 (-205)
- Payout Example: A $100 bet yields $176 profit if both legs hit.

Key Stats to Watch:
- Bryan Woo’s ERA (2.75) vs. Bailey Falter’s 3.62.
- Mariners’ HR Power (114) vs. Pirates’ 61.
- Pirates’ 6-game streak vs. Mariners’ 4-game home winning streak.

Verdict: A smart, low-risk parlay for a high-probability outcome. The Mariners’ pitching and the Pirates’ weak offense make this a classic "safe" Under, while Seattle’s home dominance adds confidence.

Play this at Caesars for the best combined odds. 🎯

Created: July 4, 2025, 11:47 a.m. GMT