Parlay: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Seattle Mariners 2025-07-05
Best Same Game Parlay: Pirates to Win + Over 7.0 Runs
Bookmaker: MyBookie.ag
Odds: 2.46 (Pirates to Win) + 1.82 (Over 7.0) = ~4.48 total odds
Why This Parlay?
1. Pirates to Win (2.46):
- The Pirates are underdogs (2.46) but have a 25-60 record as underdogs, suggesting the line may be inflated.
- Mike Burrows (3.65 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (3.55 ERA) is a near-even pitching matchup, and the Pirates’ underdog role could be undervalued.
- Over 7.0 Runs (1.82):
- The Mariners have gone over in 47 of 87 games this season (54.5%), aligning with the 1.82 Over line (55.5% implied probability).
- Castillo’s 3.55 ERA and Burrows’ 3.65 ERA suggest both starters are prone to giving up runs, making a high-scoring game likely.
Key Stats & Context
- Mariners’ Over/Under Struggles: Seattle’s 47-87 over record (54.5%) vs. the 7.0 total makes the Over a logical pick.
- Pirates’ Underdog Value: Despite a 25-60 record as underdogs, the 2.46 line implies a 40.65% chance to win, which could be a slight edge given their recent performance.
Implied Probability Breakdown
- Pirates to Win: 1 / 2.46 ≈ 40.65%
- Over 7.0 Runs: 1 / 1.82 ≈ 55.5%
- Combined Implied Probability: 40.65% * 55.5% ≈ 22.5%
- Total Implied Odds: 1 / 0.225 ≈ 4.44 (close to the 4.48 actual odds, indicating slight value).
Final Verdict
This parlay combines undervalued underdog value (Pirates) with a historically probable Over total (Mariners’ tendencies). While risky, the 4.48 payout offers a compelling reward for a 22.5% chance of success. Stick with MyBookie.ag for the best line.
Avoid: Mariners to Win + Under (1.58 * 2.0 = 3.16). The Under is a weaker pick given Seattle’s over/under history.
Broadcast: Watch on Fox Sports 1, ROOT Sports NW, or SportsNet PT.
Start Time: 10:10 p.m. ET (T-Mobile Park).
“The Pirates are the underdog with a puncher’s chance, and the Mariners’ pitching is a sieve. Bet the chaos.” 🎯
Created: July 5, 2025, 10:37 p.m. GMT