Parlay: Pittsburgh Steelers VS New England Patriots 2025-09-21

Steelers vs. Patriots: A Parlay for the Ages
Where the Odds Are as Confusing as a Toddler in a Labyrinth

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Tomorrows
Let’s start with the numbers, because even in 2025, math still works (usually). The Pittsburgh Steelers are a slight underdog in some books (-1.5 spread at DraftKings) but a mild favorite in others (Dimers gives them a 57% win probability). The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are the classic “hashtag heartbreak” team, with a 47.6% implied probability to win (based on their +210 decimal odds). The total is locked at 44.5 points, with the under having a 56% chance to cash—probably because these teams’ offenses are about as explosive as a wet sock.

The Dimers model projects a Steelers 22-20 win, while Sports Illustrated’s old-school oddsmakers have the Patriots nipping at 27-24. Why the split? Maybe because Dimers thinks Aaron Rodgers (yes, that Aaron Rodgers, now mysteriously quarterbacking Pittsburgh like a time-traveling ghost of Packer past) is a wizard, while the rest of the world assumes he’s just a man tripping over his own cleats.

Key Stats to Note:
- Steelers have lost their last three against the Patriots, a streak as cursed as a Black Friday sale at a funeral home.
- Pittsburgh’s rushing attack is about as reliable as a weather vane in a hurricane (1.8 YPC in their last game). They’ll rely on Rodgers to “create plays,” which is NFL code for “hope the defense trips.”
- The Patriots’ defense, led by a rotation of players named Drake, Stefon, and Rhamondre, has allowed an average of 24 points per game—roughly the same as my blood pressure when I check the stock market.

Digesting the News: Injuries, Oddities, and a Very Confused Fanbase
Let’s unpack the chaos:
- Steelers: Aaron Rodgers, the 39-year-old immortal, is supposedly Pittsburgh’s savior. Recent reports say he’s “healthy” but also “questionable” because no one can confirm whether he’s still human. The Steelers’ running game? A three-game average of 75 yards—about the distance a sloth covers in a Netflix documentary.
- Patriots: Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe (yes, Zappe—New England’s QB room sounds like a family of magicians) split time last week, which is either a masterclass in depth or a cry for help. Their strength? Letting opponents score 24 points, then scoring 27 themselves in a “wait, who won?” haze.

Also, the Patriots’ kicker is named “Gostkowski,” which sounds like a spell from Harry Potter but is actually just a man who punts for a living. He’s 4-for-4 on field goals this season—unfortunately, all of them were blocked by confused referees.

The Humor: Why This Game Feels Like a Bad Joke
- The Steelers’ rushing attack is so inconsistent, it makes a coin flip look deterministic. If they ran the ball 100 times, they’d probably average 1.8 yards… and 47 fumbles.
- The Patriots’ offense is like a buffet: there’s a little something for everyone, but you’ll leave hungry and wondering why the “appetizer” was a 300-yard passing game followed by a 3-and-out.
- And let’s not forget the Rodgers situation. If the Steelers’ QB is Aaron Rodgers, does that mean the Jets’ QB is Aaron Rodgers too? Is there a finite number of Rodgerses in the NFL, or is this a multiverse problem?

The Parlay: Underdog Steelers + Under 44.5 = A Bizarre But Profitable Bet
Here’s the play: Steelers to win (-1.5) AND Under 44.5 points. Why?
1. Steelers Cover the Spread: At -1.5, they just need to avoid a 24-20 loss (a fate they’ve suffered often enough to stock a museum). With Rodgers “creating plays” and Dimers’ model projecting 22-20, this feels like a “win by not losing” scenario.
2. Under 44.5 Points: Both defenses are built for a slow simmer, not a boil. The Patriots’ offense is a leaky faucet (24 PPG), and Pittsburgh’s is a flickering nightlight (19 PPG). Combine that with a Dimers-projected total of 42 points, and the Under is a safer bet than a toddler in a bubble wrap factory.

Implied Probability Check:
- Steelers to win (-115): 52.4%
- Under 44.5 (-110): 52.4%
Combined, this parlay has a ~27.2% implied probability, translating to +272 odds. If you’re betting $100, you’d win $272. Not bad for a game that feels like it was written by a sleep-deprived intern.

Final Prediction: Steelers 22, Patriots 20
The Steelers’ “win” will be as thrilling as a tax audit—low on drama, high on sighs. Rodgers will throw for 250 yards and a pick, while the Patriots’ “win” drive in the fourth quarter will end with a fumble by Drake Maye into the hands of a confused fan in the stands. Bet the Steelers to cover and the Under, and you’ll leave this game feeling like you’ve survived a family reunion: alive, slightly bewildered, and ready for a stiff drink.

Go bet responsibly, and remember: in 2025, even the NFL can’t decide what day it is. 🏈

Created: Sept. 20, 2025, 5:55 a.m. GMT