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Parlay: Raphael Collignon VS Jiri Lehecka 2025-08-29

Tennis Tragedy or Triumph? Jiri Lehecka vs. Raphael Collignon – A US Open Parlay Playbook

Ladies and gentlemen, gather ‘round for a tale of tennis titans, underdog underpressure, and a Frenchman who’s either a giant slayer or a one-hit wonder. Today’s clash: Jiri Lehecka (-625) vs. Raphael Collignon (+400). Let’s parse the numbers, digest the drama, and serve up a parlay that’ll make your bracket look like a Grand Slam champion’s résumé.

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1. Parse the Odds: Math Meets Mayhem
Lehecka, the 20th seed, is priced at -625 (decimal: ~1.13), implying a 85% implied probability of victory. Collignon, the unseeded Frenchman, sits at +400 (decimal: ~6.0), suggesting bookmakers give him a 16.7% chance. To put that in perspective, Collignon’s odds are about the same as me correctly guessing your favorite ice cream flavor on the 5th try.

But here’s the twist: Collignon just defeated Casper Ruud, a former world No. 2 and 2022 US Open runner-up, in a five-set thriller. That’s the tennis equivalent of a shrimp outwitting a great white shark. Yet Lehecka’s 2025 record (32-17) and recent wins over Borna Coric and Tomas Martin Etcheverry paint him as the statistical stalwart. The question isn’t if Lehecka is better—it’s how badly he’ll want to avoid looking like the Great White’s lunch.

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2. Digest the News: Collignon’s “Dutch” Courage
Raphael Collignon’s story is straight out of a David vs. Goliath fairy tale… written by a Dutch author with a flair for chaos. The ATP No. 107 just became the first player from his country to defeat a top-15 seed at a Grand Slam, and his post-match quotes were equal parts awe and confusion:
- “Ik heb er geen woorden voor” (translation: “I have no words for it”). Fair. Beating Ruud in five sets while ranked outside the top 100 is like baking a soufflé in a hurricane.
- Collignon credits his “mental resilience” and coach Steve Darcis for the win. Let’s just say if Darcis is a wizard, Collignon’s his apprentice—still learning to summon lightning but accidentally setting the cauldron on fire.

But here’s the rub: Collignon’s previous meeting with Lehecka? A 3-6, 6-0, 6-2, 6-4 dismantling in the first round of this very tournament. The Dutchman’s confidence is as fragile as a house of cards in a tornado. Can he repeat his Ruud magic, or will Lehecka’s 2025 title in Brisbane (and a 32-17 record) expose Collignon as a one-hit wonder?

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3. Humorous Spin: The Absurdity of Tennis
Let’s lean into the absurdity. Collignon’s victory over Ruud was so improbable, it’s like a penguin winning the Indy 500—charming, chaotic, and slightly concerning. Meanwhile, Lehecka is the tennis equivalent of a vending machine: reliable, unexciting, and nearly impossible to beat unless you trip over your own shoelaces (à la Ruud).

And let’s not forget the geographic irony: Collignon, a Frenchman, just beat a Norwegian in a five-setter. Next, he’ll probably start speaking fluent Dutch. (“Ik ben blij verrast”—translation: “I’m pleasantly surprised.” Yes, Raphael, we get it. You’re a linguistic chameleon.)

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4. Prediction & Parlay: Bet Like a Bond Villain
Lehecka to win (+100 juice? No, he’s -625, you heathens!)
Parlay Pick: Lehecka Moneyline (-625) + Under 34.5 Games (-110)

Why? Lehecka’s aggressive baseline game and Ruud’s five-set draining likely left Collignon with the stamina of a goldfish. The Under 34.5 games line makes sense—Lehecka’s defense is a brick wall, and Collignon’s recent matches have been high-scoring flukes. This could be a straight sets romp, keeping the total low.

Final Verdict: Bet Lehecka like he’s the main course, not an appetizer. Collignon’s Cinderella story ends here—unless he’s got a sixth set hidden in his bag. But let’s be real: Lehecka’s the ATP’s version of a vending machine. You can’t beat a vending machine… unless you’re Ruud, and even then, it’s a fluke.

Go forth and parlay, my friends. May your brackets be bold and your coffee be black. 🎾

Created: Aug. 29, 2025, 3:23 a.m. GMT