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Parlay: Seattle Storm VS New York Liberty 2025-07-06

Same Game Parlay: New York Liberty -5.5 & Skylar Diggins-Smith Over 20 Points
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Odds: +179 (Combined)

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Why This Parlay Works
1. New York Liberty -5.5 (-110):
The Liberty are favored at home, and their recent struggles (4-6 SU) mask their defensive improvement under Coach Sandy Brondello. The Storm’s frontcourt struggles (Nneka Ogwumike under 7.8 rebounds) and Natasha Cloud’s scoring surge (19.0 PPG) make this spread a solid play. Implied probability: 52.6% (1.91 decimal odds).

1. Skylar Diggins-Smith Over 20 Points (-110):
   Diggins-Smith is averaging 18.5 PPG and has the Liberty’s porous defense (5th in points allowed) to exploit. Her 44.3% three-point shooting and the Storm’s need to attack the rim post-Jonquel Jones’ absence make this a high-confidence prop. Implied probability: 52.6%.

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Total Implied Probability:
52.6% (Liberty -5.5) * 52.6% (Diggins-Smith Over) = 27.7%
True Odds: 1 / 0.277 ≈ +264
Value: FanDuel’s +179 line is undervalued by ~25%.

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Key Context:
- The Liberty’s home-court edge and recent defensive adjustments (per Brondello) favor a 5.5-point cover.
- Diggins-Smith’s efficiency (44.3% FG, 36.8% 3PT) and the Storm’s lack of a reliable rim protector (no Jones) tilt the prop in her favor.

Bet Size: $50 for a $129.50 profit if both legs hit.

Note: All legs are available on FanDuel as of 7/6/2025 7:32 AM ET.

Created: July 6, 2025, 7:33 a.m. GMT