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Parlay: Sebastian Ofner VS Grigor Dimitrov 2025-07-05

Same Game Parlay: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Sebastian Ofner (Wimbledon 2025)
Date/Time: July 5, 2025 | 1:40 PM (ET)

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Best Value Parlay Legs
1. Sebastian Ofner +4.5 Games Handicap
- Best Odds: 1.95 (BetRivers)
- Why? Ofner stunned 13th seed Tommy Paul in the second round, showing resilience. Dimitrov struggled against Moutet in his last match, raising questions about his consistency. Ofner’s grass-court experience (3rd round in 2017) and aggressive return game make him a solid underdog to cover the spread.

1. Over 38.5 Total Games
   - Best Odds: 1.83 (BetRivers)
   - Why? High-scoring matches are likely when an underdog (Ofner) faces a top player (Dimitrov). Ofner’s attacking style and Dimitrov’s recent inconsistency could lead to a rally-heavy contest. The Over 38.5 line is priced at 1.83, implying a 54.6% chance, but the context suggests higher actual probability.

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Combined Odds & Implied Probability
- Leg 1 (Ofner +4.5): Implied Probability = 1 / 1.95 ≈ 51.3%
- Leg 2 (Over 38.5): Implied Probability = 1 / 1.83 ≈ 54.6%
- Combined Implied Probability: 51.3% * 54.6% ≈ 28.0%
- Combined Decimal Odds: 1.95 * 1.83 ≈ 3.57 (≈ 28.0% implied)

Value Check: If the actual probability of both legs is >28%, this parlay is a value bet. Given Ofner’s recent form and Dimitrov’s shaky play, the edge is there.

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Key Stats to Watch
- Ofner’s 2017 Wimbledon Run: Reached 3rd round (lost to Zverev).
- Dimitrov’s Struggles: Lost to Moutet in 2nd round; his 2025 grass record is 13-5, but injuries have plagued him.
- Ofner’s Aggressive Play: Averaging 12+ aces per match this tournament; his return game is underrated.

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Final Verdict
Bet: Sebastian Ofner +4.5 Games Handicap & Over 38.5 Total Games
Odds: 3.57 (1.95 x 1.83)
Bookmaker: BetRivers (ensure both legs are available at these odds).

Why This Works: Ofner’s recent win over Paul and Dimitrov’s inconsistency create a mismatch. The Over is a natural extension of a high-scoring underdog battle. Avoid parlaying Dimitrov to win outright (1.27-1.30) or the Under (1.77-1.91), as the value is clearly on Ofner’s side.

Smart Money Tip: If you’re not a parlay fan, consider hedging with Dimitrov -4.5 at +1.8 (if the match trends close) to lock in profit.

Created: July 5, 2025, 1:25 p.m. GMT