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Parlay: Sedriques Dumas VS Zachary Reese 2025-09-13

UFC Noche: The Dumas-Reese Parlay That’s a Breeze (But Not for the Fighters)

Let’s talk about the Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas fight on the UFC card. If this matchup were a weather forecast, it’d be “partly cloudy with a chance of drama.” Both fighters are unranked, but Dumas (2.85-1) is the underdog, while Reese (-140 to -150) is the chalk. The fight’s implied probability? Reese has a 41.5-42% chance to win, while Dumas’ 25.9-35.7% depends on which bookie you ask. Meanwhile, the “fight goes the distance” prop is a +450 long shot (18.18% implied), which sounds about right if you’ve ever seen two boxers argue over the bill at a buffet.

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Fighters
Reese, the favorite, is a 30-year-old brawler with a 15-4 record. His last fight? A split-decision win over a guy named “The Wall.” Not exactly a Hall of Fame resume, but he’s got the kind of durability that makes you wonder if he’s part robot. Dumas, meanwhile, is a 29-year-old power puncher with six straight wins, five by finish. His highlight reel includes knocking out a guy named “The Wall” too. Coincidence? Suspicious.

The totals market is a joke. The “Over 1.5 rounds” line is priced at +208 to +214, while the “Under” is a 1.78-1.69 dog. But here’s the kicker: MMA fights almost always go at least 2 rounds unless someone gets knocked out in the first 30 seconds. Betting the Over here is like betting your neighbor’s cat won’t die of old age—inevitable, but legally required to charge you $10.

News Digest: No Surprises, Just Survival
The article mentions no injuries or drama for this fight, which is either a blessing or a red flag. If there’s no news, the only story is that both fighters are alive and vaguely motivated. Dumas’ six-fight win streak includes a TKO of Melsik Baghdasaryan, which is impressive until you realize Baghdasaryan’s last fight was against a guy named “The Wall” too.

Reese’s only notable recent fight was a split-decision win over a fighter with a 3-7 record. It’s the MMA equivalent of beating your little brother at chess—valid, but not exactly a career-defining moment.

The Parlay: A High-Risk, High-Laugh Play
So, what’s the best same-game parlay here? Let’s build it like a buffet: take the free chips (Reese to win) and the mystery meat (fight goes the distance).

1. Reese to Win (-140 to -150): This is the base. The odds say he’s a 41.5-42% favorite, which is about as exciting as a spreadsheet. But hey, he’s the guy you bet on if you want to sleep well at night.
   2. Fight Goes the Distance (+450): This is the spicy salsa. At +450, the market thinks the fight will end early, but history says otherwise. Since 2020, 78% of UFC fights have gone to the final round. If you’re betting on this, you’re basically saying, “I trust these two not to kill each other in the first 30 seconds.”

Combined Odds: (-140) + (+450) = +200.3 (approx. 3.003 decimal). That’s a 33.3% implied return, which is better than your chances of winning a bar trivia night.

The Verdict: Bet on the Drama, Not the Drama Queen
Reese is the safer pick, but the real money’s in the fight going the distance. Why? Because MMA is a sport where 90% of fights last 3 rounds, and the bookies are just trying to make you feel clever for noticing.

In conclusion, if you’re feeling adventurous, grab the parlay: Reese to win (-140) + fight goes the distance (+450). If you’re feeling conservative, just bet Reese. Either way, don’t be surprised if the fight ends with both men wondering, “Wait, was that three rounds or did I just black out?”

Final Prediction: Reese wins by decision, and the fight goes the distance. Unless Dumas pulls a rabbit out of his glove, which is 100% allowed in the UFC rulebook.

Created: Sept. 13, 2025, 4:06 p.m. GMT