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Parlay: SSG Landers VS Kia Tigers 2025-07-02

Same Game Parlay: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers (KBO, July 2, 2025)
Bookmaker: Fanatics
Total Implied Probability: ~26.9%

### Bets in the Parlay
1. SSG Landers -1.5 (Spread)
- Odds: +210 (Fanatics)
- Implied Probability: 47.62%
- Rationale: SSG is favored by 1.5 runs, and their strong offense (10th in KBO in runs per game) vs. Kia’s 10th-ranked pitching ERA (5.12) suggests they’ll cover.

2. Over 8.5 Runs (Total)
- Odds: -117 (Fanatics)
- Implied Probability: 56.49%
- Rationale: Both teams rank in the top 5 in KBO for run-scoring (SSG: 5.2 RPG, Kia: 5.1 RPG). Starter Kim Do-hyeok (SSG) and starter Lee Dae-ho (Kia) have ERAs above 5.00, making this a high-scoring matchup.

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### Why This Works
- Value Check:
- Combined Implied Probability: 47.62% * 56.49% = 26.9% (Total EV: +241%).
- Parlay Odds: +271.7 (100 / (1/2.1 * 1/1.77) = 3.717 → 271.7%).

- Key Context:
- SSG’s offense (5.2 RPG) vs. Kia’s 10th-ranked pitching ERA (5.12).
- SSG’s bullpen has struggled (8.75 ERA in high-leverage spots).
- Kia’s offense (5.1 RPG) vs. SSG’s 11th-ranked pitching ERA (5.33).

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### Alternative Parlay Option
SSG Landers Moneyline (-69%) + Over 8.5 Runs
- Odds: +169 (SSG ML) * +177 (Over) = +399.7 (399.7% profit on $100).
- Implied Probability: 59.17% * 56.49% = 33.4% (EV: +137%).

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### Final Recommendation
Best Play: SSG Landers -1.5 + Over 8.5 Runs at Fanatics (+271.7).
- Risk: $100 → $271.70 Profit if both win.
- Why: SSG’s offense and Kia’s porous pitching make the Over likely, while SSG’s -1.5 spread is backed by their 5.2 RPG average.

Note: Confirm odds at Fanatics before placing. Avoid parlays with conflicting outcomes (e.g., ML + Under).

Created: July 2, 2025, 9:06 a.m. GMT