Parlay: St. Louis Cardinals VS Chicago Cubs 2025-07-05

Same-Game Parlay: Chicago Cubs Moneyline + Under 11 Runs
Bookmaker: FanDuel (Cubs: -120, Under: -110)

Why This Parlay?
1. Cubs Moneyline (-120):
- The Cubs are 70.5% winners when favored on the moneyline this season (43-18).
- They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games, including a 11-3 rout of the Cardinals in their most recent matchup.
- Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 3.78 ERA) starts for Chicago, and the team’s 3.78 ERA is 5th in MLB.

Under 11 Runs (-110):
- The Under has hit in 7 of the Cubs’ last 8 games, including a 4-2 shutout of the Cardinals in their last meeting.
- The Cardinals’ offense is struggling (16 runs in 5 games), and their 4.03 ERA is 18th in MLB.
- Sharp money is already leaning toward the Under, with the Cubs’ strong pitching and the Cardinals’ cold bats creating a low-scoring matchup.

Implied Probability & Value:
- Cubs Moneyline (-120): 55% implied probability (100 / (120 + 100)).
- Under 11 Runs (-110): 52.4% implied probability (100 / (110 + 100)).
- Combined Implied Probability: 55% * 52.4% = 28.8% (odds ≈ +248).

Risk vs. Reward:
- A $100 parlay pays $248 if both legs hit.
- The Cubs’ dominance in this series (15-5 in their last 20 home games) and the Cardinals’ offensive woes make this a high-probability, high-reward play.

Key Stat to Watch:
- Cubs’ 3.78 ERA vs. Cardinals’ 4.03 ERA: Chicago’s pitching staff is better equipped to keep this game low-scoring.

Final Verdict:
This parlay leverages the Cubs’ strong moneyline performance and the Under’s recent dominance in a matchup where both teams’ strengths (Cubs’ pitching, Cardinals’ weak offense) align perfectly. Take the Cubs and Under at FanDuel for a smart, data-driven bet.

“The Cubs are cooking on all cylinders, and the Cardinals are stuck on ice. This parlay is a no-brainer for the Under and a team that’s 70.5% when they’re favored. Let’s ride the ‘Cubs Under’ train to a big payday.” — The Handicapper’s Hot Take

Created: July 5, 2025, 11:44 a.m. GMT