Parlay: St. Louis Cardinals VS Chicago Cubs 2025-09-26

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: A Same-Game Parlay for the Ages
Where pitching meets porosity, and hope meets Homerun-Hoax

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Sleepwalking Offense
Let’s start with the numbers, because even in baseball, math doesn’t lie (unless it’s a close call at first base). The Chicago Cubs, favored at -170 on the moneyline, are essentially the statistical equivalent of a vending machine that always dispenses your snack. Their implied probability of winning? A tidy 62.8%. The St. Louis Cardinals, at +140, are the “long shot who tripped over their own shoelaces” version of a bet—fun to root for, but not exactly a sure thing.

On the mound, the Cubs’ Colin Rea is the calm in the storm. With a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.40, Rea is the baseball equivalent of a locked door. He’s not flashy, but he’s reliable. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas is a pitcher who’s had a 2025 season that reads like a cautionary tale: 4.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a recent performance where he allowed eight runs in six innings. Imagine showing up to a buffet and realizing you forgot your appetite—that’s Mikolas against the Cubs.

Offensively, the Cardinals are a team of sleepwalkers with bats. They rank 24th in wOBA (weighted On-Base Average) and 28th in ISO (Isolated Power) against right-handed pitching. Rea, a righty, will likely make them feel like they’re swinging at shadows. The Cubs? They’re not exactly the New York Yankees, but their 3.84 ERA (9th in MLB) and a pitching staff that’s hit the under in 58 of 106 games this season? Sounds like a recipe for a low-scoring snooze-fest.

Digesting the News: Injuries, Trends, and Why the Cards Need a Wake-Up Call
Let’s check the injury report. The Cardinals’ offense is so anemic, it’s not clear if they need a medical team or a motivational speaker. Their .380 slugging percentage (29th in MLB) and 4.23 ERA (19th) suggest they’ve spent more time in the dugout than on the field. Key hitters like Brendan Donovan (.287 BA) and Ivan Herrera (.286 BA) are decent, but against Rea? They’re fighting a losing battle.

The Cubs, meanwhile, have Nico Hoerner (.299 BA) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.472 SLG) leading the charge. Their September struggles (.30th in ISO) are real, but when your pitching staff is as dominant as Chicago’s, you don’t need a fireworks show at the plate.

Trend-wise, the under is your friend here. The Cubs have hit the under in 58% of their games this season, and the Cards? A slightly less impressive 58%. With a total of 9 runs set as the benchmark, this feels like a game where both teams will be more focused on avoiding a mercy rule than chasing a home run derby.

The Humor: Because Baseball Needs More Laughs and Fewer Groundouts
The Cardinals’ offense is like a toaster that’s been told it’s not a toaster. It has the shape, the buttons, the charred bread crumbs, but somehow… it doesn’t toast. Facing Rea? They’re not just fighting a pitcher—they’re fighting physics.

As for Mikolas, his ERA is so high, it’s basically a rollercoaster. You know it’s going to dip and dive, but you’ll still end up with a stomachache. And let’s not forget Alec Burleson, the Cardinals’ .293 BA hitter who’s tasked with getting over 0.5 hits in this game. Burleson’s got the talent of a caffeinated squirrel—scrambling, scrabbling, and occasionally finding a nut.

Prediction: The Cubs Win, the Runs Stay Low, and Burleson Avoids Being a Ghost
Putting it all together: The Cubs’ pitching edge, the Cardinals’ offensive doldrums, and a total that’s low enough to make a accountant blush all point to one conclusion.

Same-Game Parlay Pick:
1. Cubs -1.5 (-215): Rea’s consistency and Mikolas’ inconsistency make this a safe bet.
2. Under 9 Runs (-183): Both teams’ offensive struggles scream “under.”
3. Alec Burleson Over 0.5 Hits (+200): Burleson’s .293 BA gives him a decent shot to avoid being a statistical phantom.

Final Verdict: The Cubs win this one by a run or two, the game stays under 9 runs, and Burleson gets at least one hit. It’s a parlay for the patient, the savvy, and the slightly masochistic. Bet it, and maybe take a nap during the 7th inning stretch—you’ll need the rest after this low-scoring thriller.

“The Cubs: Where every pitch is a masterclass in ‘Don’t Let the Cardinals Score.’”

Created: Sept. 26, 2025, 2:54 p.m. GMT